Charts & Chat - October 20, 2024
Eric Boyce • October 21, 2024
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses:
1. GDP estimates for 3Q in the increase; liquidity higher, and economic data on balance has been more positive.
2. liquidity improving in US and abroad - tends to favor profits increases and risk asset investment over time
3. retail sales stronger than expected, labor market softening as expected
4. gold strong, other energy commodities are off somewhat
5. chapter 11 filings up, expectations for delinquencies on the rise
6. regional economic surveys (Philly Fed, Empire State) paint mixed picture on manufacturing
7. investor optimism much higher on stocks versus bonds; improving stock price and earnings breadth across sectors expected

By Eric Boyce
•
January 26, 2026
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. Decision dilemma with FOMC rate meeting coming up - sticky inflation offset by weaker labor market 2. discussion of inflation components and influences 3. discussion of wages and income 4. residential housing, rental market, home improvement spending 5. exports, gold market and gold versus treasury holdings at foreign central banks 6. institutional and individual sentiment remains strong for risk assets 7. important market rotation underway - favoring value, equal weight, small cap and lower quality 8. balance of earnings growth shifting away from the Mag 7

By Eric Boyce
•
January 20, 2026
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. inflation trends heading into 2026 are favorable, pending risks from policy shocks or politicized Fed. Money supply growth also bears watching 2. Producer prices remain elevated; potential supply chain issues on the margin 3. recession probability falling, strong 4th quarter economic growth expected. First half 2026 visibility much better than the end of 2026 visibility 4. retail sales, NY/Philly Fed survey's positive; capital spending trending higher 5. labor market slowing; increased joblessness amongst younger worker and those with degrees 6. update on residential housing; oil production 7. Investor sentiment remains high, volatility low in both equity and fixed income; increased breadth in the equity markets - all sectors above moving averages 8. Lower 2 year rates steepening the yield curve; meanwhile, credit spreads remain very low - implying low risk of recession

By Eric Boyce
•
January 12, 2026
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. no significant predictive investment trends from geopolitical events, especially over the medium to long erm. 2. bank lending recovering, defaults higher but not yet a problem; new business applications on the rise 3. Housing - confidence and affordability still main drivers; average monthly payments and mortgage interest rates remain sticky 4. Job market remains sluggish; job sentiment weak 5. manufacturing remains weak; service economy remains in expansion 6. Big divergence still exists for hard versus soft data; soft data is weak, while much of the observable data is more positive. 7. Atlanta Fed predicting 5% annualized GDP growth for the 4th quarter of 2025 8. Equity market concentrations and valuation bear watching; fixed income poised for better performance

By Eric Boyce
•
January 5, 2026
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. breakdown of drivers behind the 3rd quarter economic growth data and what to possibly expect in 2026, including possible impact from lingering tariffs and the OBBBA 2. inflation and wage trends heading into the new year. 3. the impact of income levels on spending, consumer confidence and expectations, as well as impact of tariffs and OBBBA on consumers by income level. 4. home prices up, but rate of growth decelerating; median home price to income ratios increasing. 5. Manufacturing activity remains sluggish in the Dallas and Richmond Fed districts, but future order growth looks promising. 6. Net federal interest rate expense will become a significant conversation during the 2030's. 7. breakdown of 2025 equity market drivers, including by sector and by factor. What to expect at least for the first part of 2026. 8. discussion of concentration risk, valuation and volatility heading into the new year. 9. more normal treasury yield curve at beginning of year; discussion of potential for rate cuts. 10.breakdown of commodity performance in 2025 and implications for potential commodity supercycle based on potential weaker dollar expectations 11.state of alternative assets in portfolios, weak crypto markets at end of year, implications of declining Chinese fertility.

By Eric Boyce
•
December 22, 2025
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. inflation lower than expected as government data releases get back to normal following shutdown 2. regional Fed districts report mixed manufacturing activity and new orders heading into the new year 3. demographic data and its impact on future economic trends, declining number of families with children under 18 and net immigration 4. data on the housing market, affordability etc. 5. power generation demand will drive investment in the next 5-10 years 6. commodity update - oil market soft, but potential upside; copper, food basket increases 7. investor sentiment remains high, cash balances low, risk appetite is "on". 8. important role and historical impact of dividends and dividend paying stocks on overall performance and risk 9. international investments outperforming domestic; gold prices correlated with increased uncertainty and high yield correlated to crypto





