Charts & Chat - April 5, 2026

This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses:

1. economic forecasts coming down for the first quarter of 2026, yet probability of recession remains around 30%

2. inflation perking up; manufacturing looking stable; retail sales remain strong

3. sentiment eroding for all income groups, as well as expectations

4. labor market is weak and tight at the same time; trend remains mixed and unidentifiable; software industry job losses pale in comparison to broader economy

5. brent crude prices spike; off circumstance where oil is in backwardation and natural gas is in contango; expect airfare inflation due to higher jet fuel costs

6. housing - affordability concerns persist, credit availability an issue; weak market for builders and existing home sales

7. overall credit metrics are improving, except for subprime borrowers; yields on software firms blowing out because of AI displacement fears. this is causing a major disconnect on prices for private credit and direct lending relative to their net asset values

8. equity earnings and margins continue to expand; however, tech P/E multiples coming in line with broader index 

9. discussion of the things which make the S&P 500 a tough index from a benchmarking and diversification standpoint

10. There are 25% more exchange traded funds (ETFs) than listed equities on the US exchanges - implications for future markets