Charts & Chat - January 18, 2026

This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses:

1. inflation trends heading into 2026 are favorable, pending risks from policy shocks or politicized Fed. Money supply growth also bears watching 

2. Producer prices remain elevated; potential supply chain issues on the margin

3. recession probability falling, strong 4th quarter economic growth expected. First half 2026 visibility much better than the end of 2026 visibility

4. retail sales, NY/Philly Fed survey's positive; capital spending trending higher

5. labor market slowing; increased joblessness amongst younger worker and those with degrees

6. update on residential housing; oil production

7. Investor sentiment remains high, volatility low in both equity and fixed income; increased breadth in the equity markets - all sectors above moving averages

8. Lower 2 year rates steepening the yield curve; meanwhile, credit spreads remain very low - implying low risk of recession