Investing Through Uncertainty: Discipline Over Headlines

Eric Boyce • July 1, 2025

Newsletter — July 2025


Dear Clients and Friends,


As we navigate the current economic landscape, a pervasive sense of uncertainty often dominates headlines and conversations. Whether it's shifting interest rates, geopolitical tensions, or evolving market dynamics, it's natural to feel a heightened awareness of potential challenges. This month, I want to address these feelings directly and offer a perspective on how we approach investment management during such times.


We understand that market fluctuations and economic unknowns can be unsettling. You've entrusted us with your financial well-being, and it's our responsibility to guide you through all market cycles, especially those marked by increased volatility and questions about the future.



Uncertainty is, in many ways, a constant companion in the world of investing. Markets are inherently forward-looking, constantly attempting to price in potential future events, both positive and negative. This means that periods of "certainty" are often fleeting and can sometimes even be dangerous if they lead to complacency. Paradoxically, it is often during times of widespread uncertainty that some of the most compelling long-term opportunities begin to emerge for disciplined investors.


Our core philosophy remains steadfast, particularly when faced with a cloudy outlook:


  • Embrace a Long-Term Perspective: Short-term noise is precisely that – noise. Focusing on your long-term financial goals allows us to filter out the daily headlines and remain committed to a strategy designed for enduring success. History consistently shows that patient investors who weather temporary storms tend to be rewarded over decades.
  • Diversification is Your Shield: A well-diversified portfolio is designed to mitigate the impact of any single sector or asset class underperforming. By spreading investments across various industries, geographies, and asset types, we aim to reduce overall risk and enhance resilience.
  • Avoid Emotional Decisions: Fear and speculation can be powerful drivers, often leading to impulsive choices that deviate from a sound financial plan.


Our role is to provide objective analysis and disciplined execution, ensuring decisions are based on your long-term objectives, not fleeting emotions.


Our approach during uncertain times involves:


  • Vigilant Monitoring: We continuously monitor global economic indicators, market trends, and geopolitical developments to identify potential risks and opportunities.
  • Strategic Adjustments: While we adhere to your long-term plan, we remain flexible enough to make strategic adjustments to your portfolio as conditions warrant, always with a careful eye on risk-adjusted returns.
  • Focus on Fundamentals: We continue to emphasize investing in high-quality assets with strong fundamentals, regardless of short-term market sentiment. These are the companies and investments that tend to perform well over the long haul.


What you can do:


  • Stay Informed, Not Obsessed: Keep abreast of major economic trends, but avoid getting caught up in the minute-by-minute market movements that can fuel anxiety.
  • Revisit Your Goals: If you have any new financial considerations or if your risk tolerance has changed, please reach out to discuss them with me.
  • Maintain Discipline: Trust in the proven principles of long-term investing and the strategy we've built together.


We are committed to helping you navigate this period of uncertainty with confidence. Your financial well-being is our top priority, and we are here to provide the insights and support you need.


Please feel free to schedule a review of your portfolio or discuss any questions you may have.



Sincerely,


Eric Boyce, CFA

President & CEO




Forward-looking statements, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary and non-proprietary research and other sources. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but are not assured as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is neither representation nor warranty as to the current accuracy of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information.


Risks: All investments, including stocks, bonds, commodities, alternative investments and real assets, should be considered speculative in nature and could involve risk of loss. All investors are advised to fully understand all risks associated with any kind of investment they choose to make. Hypothetical or simulated performance is not indicative of future results.


Investment advisory services offered through Boyce & Associates Wealth Consulting, Inc., a registered investment adviser. Boyce & Associates Wealth Consulting, Inc. has Representatives Licensed to sell Life Insurance in TX and other states.









Logo for Boyce & Associates Wealth Consulting with
By Eric Boyce February 23, 2026
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. the changes inherent in the Supreme Count ruling on the IEEPA tariffs of the Trump Administration 2. GDP for the 4th quarter lighter than expected, driven in part by the government shutdown. Real final sales to domestic purchasers remains strong, suggesting that consumption remains robust enough to keep the economy going 3. Trade deficits higher, leading economic indicators remain negative; regional Fed surveys remain very positive, however. Leading indicators remain weak 4. One third of the federal debt is going to have to be refinanced in 2026 at a much higher interest cost. 5. government balance sheet not nearly as in good of shape as the consumer and commercial sector. Increased activity may result in additional capital spending next few years 6. equities in high demand; recent sell off has reduce valuation multiples, but US is still overvalued relative to the rest of the world. Earnings growth expected to be stronger in emerging markets than in the US 7. Hyperscaler spending set to ramp in 2026 - investors beginning to price in some skepticism 8. private investment stocks under pressure due to credit concerns
Logo for Boyce & Associates Wealth Consulting.
By Eric Boyce February 16, 2026
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. retail sales off for the month, breaking a trend; consumer prices +2.5% year-over-year, but much higher in some important categories 2. wages stable, but higher charge card delinquencies keep our focus in check. Household debt to GDP still very low, however 3. profit margins for S&P 500 driven by large tech; earnings estimates still favorable overall, but AI benefit will likely be measured in years, not months 4. trends in economic surprises suggest higher long term bond yields... 5. with recent sell off, some changes in both institutional and retail investor sentiment, although trade volumes remain high 6. increased capital spending but public companies, offset by lower stock buyback and debt paydown 7. job market slowdown continues at slow pace; job growth negative outside of healthcare since beginning of 2004 8. Gold disconnect with interest rates, but increased demand from foreign central banks, including China, driving some of that
Boyce & Associates Wealth Consulting logo and text
By Eric Boyce February 9, 2026
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. Risks to inflation from weak dollar, rising industrial prices and wages 2. ISM Services index remains positive, labor weak (job openings) 3. Strong response in energy prices, stocks - rhetoric on geopolitical developments 4. concentration of wealth and the pending wealth transfer 5. increased stock market breadth; tech stocks in correction; net profit margin and earnings per share growth remains strong across the S&P 500 equal weight index 6. international stock diversification benefit remains even if US earnings growth has far outpaced global earnings ex-US 7. yield curve as steep as its been in more than 2 years 8. lots of dry powder at private market funds ready to deploy 9. Bitcoin/crypto showing its volatile head 10. As a percent of the total economy, capital spending by the AI hyperscalers likely to exceed the US interstate highway system in the 1950-60's and the railroad build out before the civil war
Logo for Boyce & Associates Wealth Consulting with
By Eric Boyce February 2, 2026
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. Economic growth estimates for the 4th quarter lower, but numbers still expected to be good. 2. Leading indicators, port container volume down; factory orders slightly higher; retail sales slight uptick 3. comments on housing supply, significant shifts in the rental market, prices likely to continue to show slower growth 4. productivity higher likely due to AI; still risks of inflation, though, due to prices paid by producers 5. dollar remains weak, metals sell-off Friday in part due to new Fed chair nominee; money market inflows still robust despite interest rate decreases 6. quarterly earnings surprises lower; description of what to expect when earnings and economic growth are both positive 7. credit issuance going to be high, followed by refinancing of 1/3rd of all Treasury paper outstanding this coming year.
Family figures under a red umbrella, with text:
By Kelly Griggs February 1, 2026
Naming beneficiaries helps assets bypass probate, speeds payouts, reduces family conflict, and can override your will. Review designations regularly and list primary and contingent beneficiaries to protect your legacy.
Logo for Boyce & Associates Wealth Consulting. Text:
By Eric Boyce February 1, 2026
Growth stays resilient as labor cools and core inflation hovers near ~2.8%. Fed likely pauses after 2025 cuts while leadership broadens beyond megacap tech; watch tariffs, geopolitics, and an “AI bubble” reset.
Logo for Boyce & Associates Wealth Consulting. Text reads
By Eric Boyce January 26, 2026
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. Decision dilemma with FOMC rate meeting coming up - sticky inflation offset by weaker labor market 2. discussion of inflation components and influences 3. discussion of wages and income 4. residential housing, rental market, home improvement spending 5. exports, gold market and gold versus treasury holdings at foreign central banks 6. institutional and individual sentiment remains strong for risk assets 7. important market rotation underway - favoring value, equal weight, small cap and lower quality 8. balance of earnings growth shifting away from the Mag 7
Family on a couch; text
By Boyce & Associates January 23, 2026
Learn how you can take charge of your family finances, manage your budget, and build resilience for uncertain economic times.
Logo for Boyce & Associates Wealth Consulting. Text reads
By Eric Boyce January 20, 2026
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. inflation trends heading into 2026 are favorable, pending risks from policy shocks or politicized Fed. Money supply growth also bears watching 2. Producer prices remain elevated; potential supply chain issues on the margin 3. recession probability falling, strong 4th quarter economic growth expected. First half 2026 visibility much better than the end of 2026 visibility 4. retail sales, NY/Philly Fed survey's positive; capital spending trending higher 5. labor market slowing; increased joblessness amongst younger worker and those with degrees 6. update on residential housing; oil production 7. Investor sentiment remains high, volatility low in both equity and fixed income; increased breadth in the equity markets - all sectors above moving averages 8. Lower 2 year rates steepening the yield curve; meanwhile, credit spreads remain very low - implying low risk of recession
Boyce & Associates Wealth Consulting logo and
By Eric Boyce January 12, 2026
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. no significant predictive investment trends from geopolitical events, especially over the medium to long erm. 2. bank lending recovering, defaults higher but not yet a problem; new business applications on the rise 3. Housing - confidence and affordability still main drivers; average monthly payments and mortgage interest rates remain sticky 4. Job market remains sluggish; job sentiment weak 5. manufacturing remains weak; service economy remains in expansion 6. Big divergence still exists for hard versus soft data; soft data is weak, while much of the observable data is more positive. 7. Atlanta Fed predicting 5% annualized GDP growth for the 4th quarter of 2025 8. Equity market concentrations and valuation bear watching; fixed income poised for better performance
Show More