How to Craft a Plan for the Life You Want

Dear Clients and Friends,

This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. near term trends in economic growth and employment are diverging. Labor weakness giving Fed cover to lower interest rates. 2. recession probability low, bank lending up, goods inflation growth year-over-year is now positive. 3. consumption and retail sales trends are not unfavorable, but record-high credit card balances are. 4. no sign of US dollar disintermediation - Euro as a percent of global reserves remains flat, and record high foreign investment in US stocks. 5. stock valuation higher - possible near term volatility. positive return outlook, however. 6. the diversification power of alternative investments within a portfolio.

This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. Discussion of Leading economic indicators - negative trends last few years, but coincident indicators continue to move higher 2. Strong relative performance from gold - still viable as a diversification tool 3. money market balances still rising ($7.7 trillion) - lots of market liquidity available 4. infrastructure spending driven by AI, especially in the US - spending likely to continue for several years 5. tariff revenue now 18% of household income tax receipts 6. consumer spending trending down, earnings estimate growth largely driven by Mag 7, tech stocks

This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. labor market is losing some steam, especially in tariff-impacted sectors; job growth falling short of breakeven 2. downside risk to payroll growth, unemployment next few months 3. housing market remains challenged due to affordability; prospective buyer traffic/builder confidence weak 4. rise in prime and subprime auto loans as a proxy for credit conditions 5. valuations higher based on price/sales, price/book and price/earnings 6. deceleration of growth in Mag 7 stocks; however, concentration of Mag 7, media and telecom create strong influence over the S&P 500

This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. housing affordability woes, electricity prices moving up with data center demand 2. sentiment much higher for the higher income population than for lower incomes 3. Atlanta Fed GDP estimate 3.5% annualized for 3rd quarter, despite slowing in consumer spending 4. valuations high, but forward performance coming off a market high is very respectable 5. market breadth improving, foreign ownership increasing, margins balances increasing 6. market expects 0.25% rate decrease in September, but inflation (PCE) has picked up and likely to move slightly higher next few months 7. yields converging, yield curve steepening, NO sign of recession in the high yield market 8. Foreign central banks now hold more gold than US treasuries

Dear Clients and Friends,

When business owners seek an accurate valuation of their enterprise, choosing a qualified professional is crucial. Among the credentials available in the valuation industry, the Certified Valuation Analyst (CVA) accreditation, granted by the National Association of Certified Valuators and Analysts (NACVA), stands out as one of the most respected and comprehensive. Here’s why employing a CVA-accredited expert is the best decision for any business owner looking to determine the true value of their business. First, CVAs undergo rigorous training and a demanding examination process that ensures they possess deep expertise in valuation principles, market analysis, and financial statement assessment. This specialized knowledge goes well beyond basic accounting or financial analysis. NACVA’s ongoing education requirements mean that CVAs stay current with evolving valuation standards, tax laws, legal precedents, and industry practices. Second, the credibility and professionalism of a CVA-accredited expert are recognized in various legal and financial settings. Courts, regulatory bodies, banks, and investors often demand valuations prepared by experts with certifications like the CVA, as these provide the added assurance of objectivity and methodological soundness. When selling a business, applying for a loan, addressing shareholder disputes, or complying with IRS requirements, a valuation report signed by a CVA can withstand intense scrutiny and enhance stakeholder confidence. Additionally, NACVA enforces a strict code of ethical conduct for its members. Business owners can trust that a CVA will maintain independence, confidentiality, and transparency throughout the valuation process. This professional integrity reduces the risk of conflicts of interest or biased results, ensuring that valuation conclusions are fair and impartial. Lastly, a CVA takes a holistic approach, considering not only historical financials, but also industry trends, economic conditions, intellectual property, and operational strengths and weaknesses. This comprehensive view results in a more accurate and defensible valuation— critical for strategic planning, mergers and acquisitions, succession planning, or litigation support. In summary, engaging a NACVA-accredited CVA provides unparalleled expertise, credibility, ethical assurance, and a robust valuation process. Your business is not only a source of income, but also your life’s work. It can be your most valuable personal asset. You’ll want to have an accurate understanding of its value, and a CVA can provide that.

This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. Look back at lack of manufacturing growth following 2018 tariffs 2. Tariff revenue high; potential upside in capital spending in advanced manufacturing, sources of power for data centers, and other infrastructure spending 3. Misery index not foreshadowing recession; small business credit conditions remain tight 4. freight volumes, pricing subdued - may portend slowdown in consumer spending 5. consumer delinquencies picking up in some areas; paying close attention to trends 6. market breadth thin - not your father's S&P 500 anymore 7. drawdowns lead to opportunity; bond volatility higher than equity volatility & may be more seasonal than we think