This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. no significant predictive investment trends from geopolitical events, especially over the medium to long erm. 2. bank lending recovering, defaults higher but not yet a problem; new business applications on the rise 3. Housing - confidence and affordability still main drivers; average monthly payments and mortgage interest rates remain sticky 4. Job market remains sluggish; job sentiment weak 5. manufacturing remains weak; service economy remains in expansion 6. Big divergence still exists for hard versus soft data; soft data is weak, while much of the observable data is more positive. 7. Atlanta Fed predicting 5% annualized GDP growth for the 4th quarter of 2025 8. Equity market concentrations and valuation bear watching; fixed income poised for better performance
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. breakdown of drivers behind the 3rd quarter economic growth data and what to possibly expect in 2026, including possible impact from lingering tariffs and the OBBBA 2. inflation and wage trends heading into the new year. 3. the impact of income levels on spending, consumer confidence and expectations, as well as impact of tariffs and OBBBA on consumers by income level. 4. home prices up, but rate of growth decelerating; median home price to income ratios increasing. 5. Manufacturing activity remains sluggish in the Dallas and Richmond Fed districts, but future order growth looks promising. 6. Net federal interest rate expense will become a significant conversation during the 2030's. 7. breakdown of 2025 equity market drivers, including by sector and by factor. What to expect at least for the first part of 2026. 8. discussion of concentration risk, valuation and volatility heading into the new year. 9. more normal treasury yield curve at beginning of year; discussion of potential for rate cuts. 10.breakdown of commodity performance in 2025 and implications for potential commodity supercycle based on potential weaker dollar expectations 11.state of alternative assets in portfolios, weak crypto markets at end of year, implications of declining Chinese fertility.
Consensus sees 14–15% S&P 500 EPS growth, AI capex and broader leadership, ~2% GDP, limited Fed cuts, and 10-yr 3.75–4.5%. Stay diversified with quality bonds and select alternatives amid tech and inflation risks.
The start of a new year is the perfect time to take control of your finances and set yourself up for success in 2026. Small, proactive steps now can make a big difference over the year.
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. inflation lower than expected as government data releases get back to normal following shutdown 2. regional Fed districts report mixed manufacturing activity and new orders heading into the new year 3. demographic data and its impact on future economic trends, declining number of families with children under 18 and net immigration 4. data on the housing market, affordability etc. 5. power generation demand will drive investment in the next 5-10 years 6. commodity update - oil market soft, but potential upside; copper, food basket increases 7. investor sentiment remains high, cash balances low, risk appetite is "on". 8. important role and historical impact of dividends and dividend paying stocks on overall performance and risk 9. international investments outperforming domestic; gold prices correlated with increased uncertainty and high yield correlated to crypto
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. estimates heading into 2026 call for 8.7% stock growth off 12-14% earnings growth - estimates are a guide but a by no means an absolute 2. Fed cuts rates for the last time in 2025, what are the implications 3. the nuts and bolts behind the K-shaped economy for consumers, investors, businesses etc. 4. reasons behind recent improvement in trade; downtrend in employment costs 5. international equity outlook positive for 2026, risk appetite higher in all global markets 6. Mag 7 not uniformly beating the broader index; some improvements in breadth 7. yield curve positive, but longer term rates are higher than when the Fed began cutting short term rates. May see more volatility in bonds in 2026 8. commodity trends mixed; crude/distillate stocks lower, implying higher prices ahead
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. So-called "hard" economic data looking much better than "soft" data, fueling increased confidence, optimism, earnings estimate increases and market outlook for 2026 2. earnings and economic growth expected across global markets, as output remains mostly steady and public market valuations not too far from historical averages 3. US service sector remains in growth territory; production slightly positive, although capacity utilization remains depressed 4. apartment rents down, helping to hold inflation lower; multi-family vacancies rising. Single family transaction cancellations are on the rise. 5. labor market softness illustrated, highlighted by small business contraction 6. investor sentiment higher, leading to more of a "risk-on" environment 7. credit defaults looking better, leading to recompression of credit spreads in the market 8. treasury issuance spiking, which is helping to hold interest rates higher then they would otherwise likely be
Discover the top 5 financial challenges business owners face and learn practical ways to manage cash flow, budgeting, funding, pricing, and planning.
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. 3rd quarter GDP looking close to 4% annualized; retails sales setting up positive 4th quarter 2025 growth scenario 2. probability of rate cut this next month increased based on recent Fed speakers and weaker labor data; regional data is mixed, but overall data has a positive bias 3. sentiment lower overall, and dragged down by lower incomes; creates some ambiguity over first quarter 2026 economic growth prospects 4. house price growth stalling; pending home sales showing some signs of life 5. market breadth discussion - Mag 7 versus the rest of the index; growth versus value, large versus small could be at an inflection point(?) 6. Potential signals from increased insider selling; however, increased foreign investment in US markets 7. yield curve discussion; some of the reason behind gold's rise 8. commodity markets settling down; crude oil futures lower
As 2025 winds down, it’s a great time to review your financial strategy. Many tax-advantaged opportunities expire on December 31, so acting now can put you in a stronger position for 2025. Always consult your CPA or financial advisor before making any changes. 1. Max Out IRA Contributions (Including Backdoor Roths) For 2025, the IRA contribution limit is $7,000 (under 50) or $8,000 (50+). Roth contributions phase out for singles with MAGI $150,000–$165,000 and joint filers $236,000–$246,000. If your income exceeds these limits, a backdoor Roth contribution may be an option. Pre-tax IRA balances can trigger partial taxation under the pro-rata rule. 2. Roth Conversions Move money from a Traditional IRA or pre-tax retirement account into a Roth IRA. Taxes are paid now, but future growth and withdrawals are tax-free. Year-end is ideal if your income is lower, you experienced job changes, or you want to reduce taxes for heirs. Converting an employer plan account or Traditional IRA to a Roth IRA is a taxable event. Increased taxable income from the Roth IRA conversion may have several consequences including but not limited to, a need for additional tax withholding or estimated tax payments, the loss of certain tax deductions and credits, and higher taxes on Social Security benefits and higher Medicare premiums. Be sure to consult with a qualified tax advisor before making any decisions regarding your IR A. 3. Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) If you are 73 or older, you must take RMDs from most retirement accounts, including Traditional IRAs and 401(k)s. Failing to take an RMD in 2025 results in a 25% excise tax. RMDs are calculated using your prior year-end balance, age, and IRS Life Expectancy Factor. Inherited IRAs also require RMDs, which can be complex—consult an advisor. 4. Tax-Loss Harvesting Selling investments at a loss in taxable accounts can offset gains and reduce taxable income, with up to $3,000 deductible against ordinary income. Current clients: We routinely implement tax-loss harvesting at year-end. Tax-loss harvesting is a strategy of selling securities at a loss to offset a capital gains tax liability. It is typically used to limit the recognition of short-term capital gains, which are normally taxed at higher federal income tax rates than long-term capital gains, though it is also used for long-term capital gains. 5. Charitable Giving, QCDs & DAFs Donations made by December 31 may be deductible if you itemize. If you’re 70½+, a Qualified Charitable Distribution (QCD) can satisfy all or part of an RMD and reduce taxable income. A Donor-Advised Fund (DAF) allows contributions this year with an immediate tax deduction, while you recommend grants over time. Funds grow in the account, offering flexibility for strategic giving. With thoughtful planning, year-end is a chance to reduce taxes, meet retirement obligations, and start 2026 financially prepared. We are available to answer any questions. Happy holidays from all of us at Boyce & Associates Wealth Consulting!