Charts & Chat - June 28, 2026

This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses:

1. slightly higher final 1st quarter GDP, as positive net trade revision offsets weaker consumer spending

2. latest real disposable income reading higher; durable goods strength; goods spending outpacing services spending growth

3. no consistent recession indicator; CFO sentiment better for their own companies than for the economy overall

4. residential housing weakness persists - particularly in new construction; weak architectural billings suggests slower commercial real estate activity ahead. Higher percent of adults not planning to buy a home anytime soon...

5. Kansas City Fed data positive; energy price shock is over for now, but interest rates likely higher for longer

6. supply chain costs rising - especially in shipping/transportation 

7. Equity estimates continue to move higher, reducing multiples. returns from Mag 7 are negative this year, while semiconductor shares doubled last year

8. gold outperformance waning; several industry sectors continue to lag the overall S&P 500 index

9. defaults on high yield remain low relatively to prior credit episodes - more distress in investment grade actually 

10. private credit issues likely overblown. concentrated in the software sector within small funds. High rates and lower debt coverage increases risk during the interim