Charts & Chat - November 27, 2023

This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses:

1. Thanksgiving dinner items up 25% in 3 years, amidst continued drop in inflation forecasts through end of 2024

2. importance of holiday season sales to the economy

3. wages sticky, rents falling - impact on inflation

4. Leading economic indicators negative 19 straight months - foreshadow economic slowdown; other data still positive on the margin

5. continued shift in bank deposits into money funds - associated impact on lending capacity

6. mortgage rates falling again, builder sentiment likely to fall, more home buying transactions failing

7. Magnificent 7 stocks will be hard pressed to maintain valuations; majority of market ~3-4% YTD

8. Equal weight S&P 500 P/E suggests 7-9% annual returns next 10 years... 9. 10-years treasury yields down off highs, dollar down YTD, gold up close to $2000/oz