Charts & Chat - September 25, 2023
Eric Boyce • September 25, 2023
This week, Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. the timing of the lagged effect of monetary tightening 2. Interest rates are rising again, but the yield curve is steepening 3. Lots of compelling reasons to expect an economic soft landing; however, risks remain and some data like the Leading Economic Indicators still would support recession 4. Trend data and correlations do forecast economic slowdown 5. earnings and economic forecasts can be volatile, but recent trends have been positive

By Eric Boyce
•
August 10, 2026
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. economic growth estimates for 3rd quarter imply strong ~6% expansion at this time, driven in large part by technology and AI 2. services and manufacturing economies are in solid shape. 3. AI-related capital spending providing economic boost, with some risk. Resulting free cash flow growth expected in 1-3 years 4. labor market reasonable on its face, as internals show interesting data trends. Recent downward revisions, labor participation and hourly earnings are dropping, more growth in part-time work, higher unemployment trends from college graduates 5. equity markets driven by strong earnings, enthusiasm; risk that sentiment could interrupt high valuations 6. high concentration of S&P 500 in the top 10 companies in the index - margin improvement benign outside of this group




