November 2025 Outlook: Inflation Pops, Seasonal Tailwinds

Newsletter — November 2025

Dear Clients and Friends,

As we close out October 2025, the global economic landscape continues to exhibit a mix of resilience and uncertainty. Amid moderating inflation and robust corporate earnings in key sectors, markets have shown strength, though volatility persists due to geopolitical tensions and shifting monetary policies. This letter reviews the current financial, economic, and investment backdrop, supported by recent data, while highlighting both risks and opportunities. The outlook for November may include heightened activity around policy decisions and seasonal market dynamics.

Economic Backdrop

The U.S. economy has demonstrated volatility throughout 2025, with real GDP experiencing a modest contraction in the first quarter followed by catch-up growth in the second. The Conference Board anticipates U.S. GDP growth to slow to 1.6% for the full year, down from 2.8% in 2024, reflecting broader concerns over consumer spending and investment. Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), most recently accelerated to an annual rate of 2.9%—the fastest pace since January, driven by persistent pressures in housing and services. Unemployment ticked up to 4.3%, with nonfarm payrolls adding only 22,000 jobs in the latest report, signaling a cooling labor market.

Globally, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects growth to ease from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, influenced by advanced economies’ slowdowns and emerging market challenges. Emerging markets (EM) growth is forecasted to decelerate to a 2.4% annualized rate in the second half of 2025, amid geopolitical tensions and rising protectionism. Per Price WaterhouseCoopers (PwC), global GDP stabilized at 2.8% in 2024 but is expected to dip to 2.6% in 2025 due to similar factors. Notably, business investment in information processing equipment contributed 46% to U.S. GDP growth in the first half of the year, underscoring the role of technology during our current expansion.

Financial and Investment Markets

October marked a positive month for equities, with the S&P 500 rising 3.6%; however, the Nasdaq Composite faced headwinds, dropping 3.6% on October 13 amid weakness in major technology stocks. Overall, markets benefited from easing interest rates, AI-driven growth, and resilient earnings, with S&P 500 net margins holding steady at 12.3% in the second quarter of 2025—above the five-year average. Historically, October has been favorable for U.S. stocks, averaging a 1.4% return for the S&P 500.

Fixed income markets remain volatile, with bond yields and credit spreads fluctuating amid economic shifts. Commodities and currencies have also seen movement, with U.S. equities

gaining on strong third quarter earnings thus far while Chinese markets declined. In alternative assets, digital currencies like Bitcoin continue to exhibit sharp fluctuations tied to speculation and policy changes, contrasting with traditional markets’ more measured responses.

Key Risks

While the backdrop is, for the most part, supportive, several risks warrant caution. Geopolitical tensions, including ongoing conflicts and especially trade uncertainties, continue to drive market volatility and could exacerbate supply chain disruptions. Inflation’s resurgence to 2.9% poses a threat, potentially prompting central banks to pause rate cuts and leading to higher borrowing costs. The World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report highlights evolving threats like cybersecurity vulnerabilities and system-level risks in investment practices. In emerging markets, concerns over data availability and governance could deter inflows, with EM risk premiums compressed amid lingering inflation pressures. Domestically, a slowing labor market and potential recession signals—despite no current forecast—add to downside pressures. Political risks, such as policy shifts in swing states or international relations, may introduce further uncertainty.

Opportunities Ahead

On the opportunity side, the broadening market rally presents avenues for diversification. AI and technology sectors remain strong, with high-growth tech stocks in the U.S. navigating volatility effectively. Housing shortages in the U.S. create compelling investments in real estate, while the AI-driven energy bottleneck signals unprecedented demand in infrastructure and renewables. In addition, emerging markets are entering what could be a dynamic growth phase.

Rethinking diversification—moving beyond traditional bonds and stocks to structured investments and alternatives like digital assets—could enhance returns amid evolving risks. Fixed income offers navigation potential in volatile yields. 

Outlook for November 2025

Looking to November, we anticipate continued sideways trading in equities as investors balance bargain-hunting with economic and political leads. Key events include potential U.S. CPI data releases, which could show inflation rising further, which may influence Fed decisions. EM central banks may continue rate cuts, supporting growth, while global forums like the OECD Economic Outlook will provide fresh projections. Seasonally, November often enters a bullish phase for stocks, but uncertainties around year-end policies and holidays could amplify swings. We recommend maintaining diversified portfolios, focusing on resilient sectors like AI and energy, while monitoring inflation and geopolitics closely.

Our team remains committed to guiding your portfolios through this environment. Please feel free to schedule a review of your portfolio or discuss any questions you may have. Thank you for your continued trust and confidence.

Sincerely,

Eric Boyce, CFA

President & CEO

Forward-looking statements, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary and non-proprietary research and other sources. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but are not assured as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is neither representation nor warranty as to the current accuracy of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information.

Risks: All investments, including stocks, bonds, commodities, alternative investments and real assets, should be considered speculative in nature and could involve risk of loss. All investors are advised to fully understand all risks associated with any kind of investment they choose to make. Hypothetical or simulated performance is not indicative of future results.

Investment advisory services offered through Boyce & Associates Wealth Consulting, Inc., a registered investment adviser. Boyce & Associates Wealth Consulting, Inc. has Representatives Licensed to sell Life Insurance in TX and other states.