Charts & Chat - November 9, 2025

This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses:

1. Record length of government shutdown; estimated economic impact $10-30B per week

2. stock valuations bifurcated between Mag 7 and rest of market; profit margins remain elevated despite tariffs; earnings beats during latest quarter remain well above average.

3. high level of short term treasury bills increases supply & keeps interest rates likely higher than would otherwise be the case

4. relative size of US markets to the world dramatically higher than the global financial crisis

5. credit quality ok; delinquencies manageable (except for student loans) and may have reached an interim peak

6. labor market weakness, but not a large problem; other economic indicators not unfavorable

7. holiday sales forecast calls for 4% growth; median age for first time homebuyer is 40 years