Charts & Chat - May 27, 2025

This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. changes in the first quarter economic growth report 2. trade and dollar comments following the trade court decision 3. Fed in tough spot; inflation v. growth worry - impact on recession probability 4. Earnings and profits expectations - likely some slowing second half of 2025 but not catastrophic 5. Richmond Fed - slight improvement in expectations, although uncertainty remains a driver 6. housing clearly still stuck in low gear due to affordability 7. analysis of hard data - order, bankruptcies, etc does not reflect crisis situation 8. discussion of strong correlation between gold and dollar 9. energy stocks imply strong pricing heading into summer driving season 10. discussion of dynamic shifts within the S&P 500 index 11. private markets slow getting out of 2025 gate; institutional investments expected to increase, but new activity appears slow

In my previous article, “Caring for an Aging Parent,” we explored how to begin conversations with aging loved ones about their future healthcare needs. In this Part II, we’re diving into the why —why long-term care (LTC) planning is so critical for families today. Let’s start with some hard truths: 7 out of 10 people over age 65 will require some form of long-term care support. 66% of caregivers tap into their own retirement or savings to cover the cost of care for a loved one. 100% of families are impacted in some way. The importance of this topic becomes immediately clear: LTC will likely affect every single person reading this . It might be your parents who need care. It could be your spouse’s parents. And, statistically speaking, you or your spouse are very likely to need support in the future . In our financial planning practice, it’s our responsibility to address topics that can dramatically affect the outcome of decades of hard-earned savings. The good news is, there are many strategies and tools available today that can help you prepare and protect your family’s financial future. What Are Your Options? 1. Traditional Long-Term Care Policies Standalone LTC policies were widely used 30 years ago, but many providers have since exited the market or increased premiums to unsustainable levels due to rising life expectancy. For that reason, we do not recommend these policies and won’t spend time reviewing them here. 2. Life Insurance with Long-Term Care Benefits For older clients, we often recommend life insurance policies that provide LTC coverage if needed—but also offer a death benefit if care is never used. This structure ensures that your premiums are not lost, no matter what happens. 3. Hybrid Policies These insurance products combine life insurance with long-term care features. They allow the policyholder to access a % of the death benefit while still alive to pay for caregiving services—such as in-home care, assistance with daily activities, or transportation to appointments. Hybrid policies offer flexibility and peace of mind. 4. Annuities with Long-Term Care Ride Annuities have significantly improved in recent years. Today, certain annuities can double your monthly income for a set period if you experience a qualifying LTC event. For example, if you're receiving $6,000 per month in retirement income and meet the criteria, your income could increase to $12,000 per month for a period of time to help cover care costs. Be Proactive, Not Reactive These are just a few of the tools available to help you p lan ahead for the high costs of healthcare and caregiving later in life. The key is to start planning early—before a crisis hits . By doing so, you protect not just your savings, but also your independence and the well-being of those you love. If you haven’t yet talked about LTC planning with your family or financial advisor, now is the time. Because when it comes to long-term care, it’s not just about protecting assets—it’s about preserving dignity, choice, and peace of mind.

Dear Clients and Friends,

In the latest Charts of the Week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. tariffs are higher overall despite the noise about levels about "deals" - watch the hard economic data in the coming months 2. producer prices witniessing margin compression 3. retail sales mixed 4. 2nd quarter GDP looking like 2.5% according to Atlanta Fed GDPNow - could be the best quarter of year, but lots of data due to be released next six weeks... 5. some credit indicators weakening; consumer is reasonably good shape. 6. tourism at 10% of GDP - is important 7. debt levels are unsustainable and will need to be address in congress/fiscal policy at some point 8. equities strong, but P/E multiples moving back higher as well - increases risk if economic data/estimates drop considerably due to economic slowdown

This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. expected slowdown in economic growth, earnings 2. drop in container shipments from china; impact on tariffs on S&P 500, small business 3. country impact from tariffs; how china is pivoting 4. impact by sector; expectations and response from US companies 5. observations on credit, productivity, activity ahead of the tariffs 6. several data points on how consumers are planning for the next 6-9 months

It is no secret that the cost of college is rising with no end in sight, requiring further planning, strategy, and saving. The Section 529 funds are very common recommendations for families saving for college. While this is great for some families, there are good, bad and ugly aspects of these plans and some families will benefit more from other strategies. The Good: The biggest benefit to a 529 fund is the potential tax savings. The growth of the investments within the fund, and the withdrawals are all tax free when used for qualified education expenses (as defined in the IRC). Another benefit is the new 529 laws have expanded qualified education expenses to include trade schools and other forms of higher education. However, there are also several shortcomings.  The Bad: 529’s often have very limited investment options, many of which are age-based investing, often not being as adjustable to risk tolerance and preference. The family does not get a lot of discretion. Another shortcoming is they have to be declared on the FAFSA and can lower your need based aid. The Ugly: If 529 funds are not used for education, they are stuck in this account. The only options are to change the beneficiary to another family member or withdraw and pay income tax on growth, as well as a 10% penalty. While there is a new provision to roll leftover balances into a Roth IRA, read the fine print. There are a lot of strings and checkboxes attached to this provision. In conclusion, while these vehicles are still the best strategy for some families, there are other vehicles referred to as tax or asset advantaged assets that are more beneficial for other families. These assets do not have many of the withdrawal constraints and limitations of 529’s. These assets can often be sheltered from the FAFSA, potentially increasing your need-based aid. Every family needs to understand which strategy will be most beneficial for their family. Contact Boyce & Associate today for expert recommendations on which strategy is best for your family.

Dear Clients and Friends,