This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. labor market is losing some steam, especially in tariff-impacted sectors; job growth falling short of breakeven 2. downside risk to payroll growth, unemployment next few months 3. housing market remains challenged due to affordability; prospective buyer traffic/builder confidence weak 4. rise in prime and subprime auto loans as a proxy for credit conditions 5. valuations higher based on price/sales, price/book and price/earnings 6. deceleration of growth in Mag 7 stocks; however, concentration of Mag 7, media and telecom create strong influence over the S&P 500
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. housing affordability woes, electricity prices moving up with data center demand 2. sentiment much higher for the higher income population than for lower incomes 3. Atlanta Fed GDP estimate 3.5% annualized for 3rd quarter, despite slowing in consumer spending 4. valuations high, but forward performance coming off a market high is very respectable 5. market breadth improving, foreign ownership increasing, margins balances increasing 6. market expects 0.25% rate decrease in September, but inflation (PCE) has picked up and likely to move slightly higher next few months 7. yields converging, yield curve steepening, NO sign of recession in the high yield market 8. Foreign central banks now hold more gold than US treasuries
Dear Clients and Friends,
When business owners seek an accurate valuation of their enterprise, choosing a qualified professional is crucial. Among the credentials available in the valuation industry, the Certified Valuation Analyst (CVA) accreditation, granted by the National Association of Certified Valuators and Analysts (NACVA), stands out as one of the most respected and comprehensive. Here’s why employing a CVA-accredited expert is the best decision for any business owner looking to determine the true value of their business. First, CVAs undergo rigorous training and a demanding examination process that ensures they possess deep expertise in valuation principles, market analysis, and financial statement assessment. This specialized knowledge goes well beyond basic accounting or financial analysis. NACVA’s ongoing education requirements mean that CVAs stay current with evolving valuation standards, tax laws, legal precedents, and industry practices. Second, the credibility and professionalism of a CVA-accredited expert are recognized in various legal and financial settings. Courts, regulatory bodies, banks, and investors often demand valuations prepared by experts with certifications like the CVA, as these provide the added assurance of objectivity and methodological soundness. When selling a business, applying for a loan, addressing shareholder disputes, or complying with IRS requirements, a valuation report signed by a CVA can withstand intense scrutiny and enhance stakeholder confidence. Additionally, NACVA enforces a strict code of ethical conduct for its members. Business owners can trust that a CVA will maintain independence, confidentiality, and transparency throughout the valuation process. This professional integrity reduces the risk of conflicts of interest or biased results, ensuring that valuation conclusions are fair and impartial. Lastly, a CVA takes a holistic approach, considering not only historical financials, but also industry trends, economic conditions, intellectual property, and operational strengths and weaknesses. This comprehensive view results in a more accurate and defensible valuation— critical for strategic planning, mergers and acquisitions, succession planning, or litigation support. In summary, engaging a NACVA-accredited CVA provides unparalleled expertise, credibility, ethical assurance, and a robust valuation process. Your business is not only a source of income, but also your life’s work. It can be your most valuable personal asset. You’ll want to have an accurate understanding of its value, and a CVA can provide that.
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. Look back at lack of manufacturing growth following 2018 tariffs 2. Tariff revenue high; potential upside in capital spending in advanced manufacturing, sources of power for data centers, and other infrastructure spending 3. Misery index not foreshadowing recession; small business credit conditions remain tight 4. freight volumes, pricing subdued - may portend slowdown in consumer spending 5. consumer delinquencies picking up in some areas; paying close attention to trends 6. market breadth thin - not your father's S&P 500 anymore 7. drawdowns lead to opportunity; bond volatility higher than equity volatility & may be more seasonal than we think
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. Stocks have moved higher over the long term despite variations in price/earnings multiples 2. S&P 500 index is inherently different from even 10 years ago; volatility and intra-year drawdowns are absolutely normal and can lead to generous long term returns if one is patient and diligent 3. the power of long term compounded return and diversification - stocks versus bonds and cash; stocks have considerably more volatility than bonds 4. The importance of being diligent on monitoring inflation - trends in service inflation, wages provide dilemma for Fed on interest rates 5. Boom in infrastructure spending, notably data centers 6. Surge in new business applications bodes well for entrepreneurship 7. Big opportunity in offshore Asia private credit and private equity
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. The slowing in the labor economy due to tariffs, etc. 2. 2nd quarter GDP reflected reversal from 1Q - real read through is slowdown in final sales to private domestic purchasers 3. In 25 years, persons over 55 yrs of age own 20% more of the total household assets...implications for wealth planning and transfer 4. Potential implication on long-term interest rates from increased deficits from OBBBA 5. Second quarter earnings stronger than expected; profit margins holding steady amidst increased tariffs 6. Updates on housing starts/sentiment, consumer financial health, PMI data, consumer sentiment
Dear Clients and Friends,
Retiring with $2 million is a milestone many Americans dream of reaching, but what that money actually provides depends heavily on where you live and the lifestyle you envision. In Texas, where the cost of living can vary significantly by region, $2 million can open up a range of retirement possibilities, from modest and stress-free to comfortably upscale. The cost of housing alone can make a significant difference in how far your nest egg stretches, whether you're pursuing upscale city living in Austin or a more relaxed, budget-friendly lifestyle in places like Amarillo. To illustrate this variation, here’s how median home prices and lifestyle considerations differ across several Texas cities: