Holiday Outlook: Soft-Landing Hopes, Election Risks

This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. economic forecasts has consistently been wrong this year; however, Atlanta Fed GDP Now has been relatively accurate - predicting strong growth in 3Q 2025 2. financial conditions have improved, but so have inflation expectations. Fed has dual mandate, but weakening labor market is the primary focus right now 3. lower US dollar can help fuel inflation, Federal Reserve regional surveys show increase in prices paid 4. low credit spreads, capital spending plans higher, trade policy uncertainty moving lower - no signal of recession at this point 5. private equity and credit markets continue to expend in size and importance

Life will always throw curveballs- it’s not a matter of if, but when. The question is, will you be prepared when financial storms come your way? Having a solid, secure financial plan is less about predicting the future and more about being ready for uncertainty and building a foundation that gives you confidence. Building a Confident Financial Plan A strong plan puts you in a position of strength. Preparation doesn’t stop the storm, but it helps you act with clarity instead of panic. Without one, people often find themselves dipping into savings, relying on credit, or feeling overwhelmed by stress. These are warning signs that your financial health may need attention and that you may be reacting instead of leading your financial life. Similarly, preparation today ensures that no matter what happens- rising inflation, interest rate hikes, or even geopolitical shocks- you are not caught off guard. When you’ve already thought through possible scenarios, you can respond wisely instead of scrambling for quick fixes. Steps to Get Started 1. Get Clarity on What You Want. Start by asking: Does my money reflect my priorities? Review your spending over the last three months without judgment. This exercise will reveal whether your dollars are working toward your goals or drifting elsewhere. 2. Define Your Goals. What do you truly want your life to look like? A confident plan aligns your finances with your dreams—whether that’s building wealth, securing retirement, funding education, or creating meaningful experiences with family. Hope is not a strategy; clear goals are. 3. Make Your Money Work for You. Once you know what matters most, position your money intentionally. That could mean saving systematically, investing for long-term growth, or using insurance to preserve what you’ve built and provide stability no matter what comes your way. Take Action Now Most people don’t fail because they made bad decisions—they fail because they made no decisions. Inaction comes at a cost, while small, purposeful steps build confidence and momentum over time. Your financial future doesn’t have to feel uncertain. By crafting a plan now, you create security, resilience, and the ability to face life’s storms with strength, knowing you’ve taken intentional steps to protect your future.

Dear Clients and Friends,

This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. near term trends in economic growth and employment are diverging. Labor weakness giving Fed cover to lower interest rates. 2. recession probability low, bank lending up, goods inflation growth year-over-year is now positive. 3. consumption and retail sales trends are not unfavorable, but record-high credit card balances are. 4. no sign of US dollar disintermediation - Euro as a percent of global reserves remains flat, and record high foreign investment in US stocks. 5. stock valuation higher - possible near term volatility. positive return outlook, however. 6. the diversification power of alternative investments within a portfolio.

This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. Discussion of Leading economic indicators - negative trends last few years, but coincident indicators continue to move higher 2. Strong relative performance from gold - still viable as a diversification tool 3. money market balances still rising ($7.7 trillion) - lots of market liquidity available 4. infrastructure spending driven by AI, especially in the US - spending likely to continue for several years 5. tariff revenue now 18% of household income tax receipts 6. consumer spending trending down, earnings estimate growth largely driven by Mag 7, tech stocks

This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. labor market is losing some steam, especially in tariff-impacted sectors; job growth falling short of breakeven 2. downside risk to payroll growth, unemployment next few months 3. housing market remains challenged due to affordability; prospective buyer traffic/builder confidence weak 4. rise in prime and subprime auto loans as a proxy for credit conditions 5. valuations higher based on price/sales, price/book and price/earnings 6. deceleration of growth in Mag 7 stocks; however, concentration of Mag 7, media and telecom create strong influence over the S&P 500

This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. housing affordability woes, electricity prices moving up with data center demand 2. sentiment much higher for the higher income population than for lower incomes 3. Atlanta Fed GDP estimate 3.5% annualized for 3rd quarter, despite slowing in consumer spending 4. valuations high, but forward performance coming off a market high is very respectable 5. market breadth improving, foreign ownership increasing, margins balances increasing 6. market expects 0.25% rate decrease in September, but inflation (PCE) has picked up and likely to move slightly higher next few months 7. yields converging, yield curve steepening, NO sign of recession in the high yield market 8. Foreign central banks now hold more gold than US treasuries

Dear Clients and Friends,