Charts & Chat - April 27, 2025

This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses:

1. What to expect in the GDP numbers this week, and the notable rise in mentions of "uncertainty" and "tariffs" in the new Fed composite survey

2. Hard data still holding up amidst the decline in soft data

3. Outlook for orders, capital spending declining; meanwhile prices paid rising in anticipation of tariffs

4. Inventories rising in advance of tariffs - likely a tailwind for the second quarter, but a headwind for the second half of the year, given the current rhetoric

5. Regional Fed service sector data also showing some weakness...

6. Dollar weakness (off trough, though) - what are the implications

7. Gold strength likely to persist

8. S&P 500 earnings estimates coming down ~15% - an analysis of the current adjustments

9. Evidence that markets have reasonable upside following episodes where the market is down 5% over two days (recent occurrence)