Charts & Chat - August 16, 2026

This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses:

1. consumer inflation largely in line, tempering fears (for now) of a near term rate increase. Core goods and services both show deceleration; however, producer prices remain elevated. Overall consumer inflation now 13% above the Fed's 2% trend target, highlighting the difficulty of maintaining policy goals

2. 3Q 2026 economic growth now estimated at ~4.3%, down from +5%. Tariff refunds helping in the near term

3. trade policy uncertainty abating, soft data providing more positive economic surprises.

4. wages remain sticky, savings rates on the decline

5. retail investors more optimistic on market than institutional investors at the moment, but overall optimism remains high. Earnings estimates are accelerating, drawing price/earnings multiples down. Tech and industrial firms leading the way on sectors raising guidance

6. seasonal patterns suggest volatility may pick up next few months before calming toward year end.

7. energy supplies remain constrained, leaving room for potential price spike in the coming months.

8. Treasury bond issuance increasingly anchored in short term, exposing to increasing borrowing costs should rates rise. New long term issuance now above 5% for the 1st time since 2001, reflecting fiscal issues and higher potential inflation