Charts & Chat - August 20, 2023
Eric Boyce • August 20, 2023
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses:
1. stock valuations stretched, fueled by earnings expectations, fund flows; stocks less attractive relative to bonds
2. bond rates higher due to increased supply
3. higher real rates may weigh on stocks; TIPS attractive
4. mixed economic data - recent production strong (autos); leading indicators down 15 straight months
5. China - subject to 3 D's - deflation, demographics and high debt - slowdown in front of us...
6. weak housing affordability offset by builder optimism
7. retail sales relatively strong, but set to weaken

By Eric Boyce
•
August 10, 2026
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. economic growth estimates for 3rd quarter imply strong ~6% expansion at this time, driven in large part by technology and AI 2. services and manufacturing economies are in solid shape. 3. AI-related capital spending providing economic boost, with some risk. Resulting free cash flow growth expected in 1-3 years 4. labor market reasonable on its face, as internals show interesting data trends. Recent downward revisions, labor participation and hourly earnings are dropping, more growth in part-time work, higher unemployment trends from college graduates 5. equity markets driven by strong earnings, enthusiasm; risk that sentiment could interrupt high valuations 6. high concentration of S&P 500 in the top 10 companies in the index - margin improvement benign outside of this group




