Charts & Chat - March 29, 2026

This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses:

1. more data on the impact, duration and persistency of oil price shocks and their impacts on the investment markets and the economy

2. global geopolitical fragmentation increasing, coupled with declining share of fossil fuels as percent of total energy consumption

3. current forecast for first quarter 2026 economic growth is 2.0%

4. 33% of US government will mature this coming year ($10 trillion), which will need to be refinanced at higher rates; 20% of federal tax receipts go to interest on the federal debt

5. trade policy uncertainty declining, while economic policy uncertainty higher

6. seeing some inflationary pressure coming from producer prices in several Fed districts and in import prices 

7. more soft sentiment data from consumers; however, retail and consumption data remain favorable amidst favorable financial conditions

8. stock sell off mitigated by strong earnings, increased liquidity

9. since 1949, average bull market lasts 5.3 years and returns 254%; meanwhile, average bear market lasts 1 year and declines 31%

10. private credit sell-off likely overdone, based on actual loss data