Charts & Chat - December 15, 2024

This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses:

1. positive overall trends in producer and consumer inflation, including downward trend in OER (rents); goods inflation higher due to vehicles

2. PCE (the Fed's preferred inflation gauge) expected to drop in the forthcoming release

3. market pricing 0.25% rate cut in the December meeting; another +/-0.75% in cuts expected next year

4. growth expectations looking strong heading into 2025, as is capital expenditures and consumer spending

5. Small business optimism, sales expectations, hiring intentions and compensation trending higher

6. positive: manufacturing construction spending, real consumer spending

7. labor market stabilizing

8. tariffs are wildcard - not likely to be paired with money supply growth, so not sure how inflationary it would be; could impact growth, however

9. bond spreads tight - no real sign of expected stress; 3m-10y yield curve is on cusp of disinverting

10. liquidity remains strong, along with equity allocations and sales growth expectations heading into 2025