Charts & Chat - February 23, 2025

This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses:

1. fund manager sentiment now lists trade-war led recession and potential rate hikes as biggest fat tail risks in the economy, leading to gold and global equity outperformance

2. data on inflation suggests we may not hit the Fed's 2% target, although PCE data may get closer

3. retail sales strong; Philly Fed manufacturing still positive, but capital spending intentions have pulled back a bit given trade and economic uncertainty

4. seeing federal layoffs in the DC employment data; GDP estimate from Atlanta Fed now looking for 2.3% 1st quarter (2025) annual growth.

5. Financial conditions remain positive despite higher rates for likely longer.

6. the challenges of replacing income taxes with tariff revenue...

7. growing predictions of government shutdown next month

8. portfolio return variance dictated by stocks last 40 years; growing influence, benefit and contribution from private equity and credit

9. data on the dramatic influence by foreign direct investment into the investment market's sustained growth