Charts & Chat - July 12, 2025

This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses:

1. small business remain high due to trade policy

2. GDP likely to rebound - I discuss the drivers of the near term reversal and what to expect 

3. US dollar weakness - what are the implications, and what is the relationship between inflation and interest rates

4. Recession probability remains low; long term inflation remains anchored

5. analysis of how many businesses are planning to pass through tariffs to customers

6. Trade war likely to take ~0.9% off GDP (per Apollo) - bigger than any most countries.

7. Analyzing debt, consumer credit and spending trends

8. Trends in earnings estimates, investor sentiment

9. college education costs expected to be up +9% year-over-year