Charts & Chat - July 2, 2023
Eric Boyce • July 2, 2023
This week, Eric Boyce, CFA discusses:
1. some positive economic signals & economic surprise index movements
2. households, global savings, debt levels
3. untapped economic benefit from household equity in businesses and real estate
4. lower government spending will anchor economic growth - trending to a technical recession on data the NBER follows
5. valuations high, especially when earnings estimates for S&P 500 are declining
6. 2 year treasury keeps going up; meanwhile, 10 year treasury remains anchored - yield curve further inverted

By Eric Boyce
•
April 13, 2026
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. final 4Q GDP revision reflects weaker year-end environment. First quarter estimates are trending down, reflecting pressure from geopolitics 2. personal income trending lower, although credit outstanding remains flat 3. PCE prices are elevated, primarily from goods prices - housing continuing to drop 4. energy market impacts from Iran conflict - disproportionate impact on lower income, Asia energy markets 5. forward looking equity returns look to be more limited, following three years of above average returns - private investments will likely play a greater role going forward 6. still a considerable gap on individuals with retirement plans, even at the higher income levels 7. earnings estimates moving higher, especially for tech firms; accordingly, tech P/E multiples back down to overall index average




