Charts & Chat - March 2, 2025

This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses:

1. expectations for growth and inflation both increasing for 2025

2. earnings transcripts show increase mention of inflation, tariffs - but also productivity gains from AI

3. labor market really appears stable at this point - firms are downplaying both hiring and layoffs (except in DC)

4. consumer sentiment remains ok, but may change.  50% of consumer spending comes from top 10% earners who have $1.3T in excess savings

5. peak impact of tariffs and DOGE likely 4Q - -0.5% to growth and +0.2% to inflation

6. regional Fed surveys reflect somewhat muted conditions with new exports expected to decline and uncertainty on the rise

7. S&P 500 and 10 year treasury yield positively correlated for the first time in a few months; 3m-10y yield curve back to inverted

8. growth v. value; international equity has weaker growth vs US, but much better valuations

9. bearish sentiment spikes at the individual investor level

10. graph on expected military spending by Europe next few years in the wake of the failed Trump/Zelenskyy meeting this past week