Charts & Chat - October 2, 2023
Eric Boyce • October 2, 2023
This week, Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. background on government shutdowns (although we seem to avoided this one!) 2. probability of recession dropping, CFO confidence rising 3. money supply/rents dropping - should help lower inflation 4. gasoline prices, healthcare moving the other direction, though 5. discussion of core PCE - trailing 3 month annual rate is ~2% 6. equities priced below 5 year average and near the 10 year average; international stocks priced very cheap relative to US 7. immigrants and visas picking up - helps stabilize labor market.

By Eric Boyce
•
April 13, 2026
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. final 4Q GDP revision reflects weaker year-end environment. First quarter estimates are trending down, reflecting pressure from geopolitics 2. personal income trending lower, although credit outstanding remains flat 3. PCE prices are elevated, primarily from goods prices - housing continuing to drop 4. energy market impacts from Iran conflict - disproportionate impact on lower income, Asia energy markets 5. forward looking equity returns look to be more limited, following three years of above average returns - private investments will likely play a greater role going forward 6. still a considerable gap on individuals with retirement plans, even at the higher income levels 7. earnings estimates moving higher, especially for tech firms; accordingly, tech P/E multiples back down to overall index average





