Charts & Chat - October 23, 2023

This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. Leading economic indicators down 18 straight months - implications considering coincident indicators remain ok 2. Fed Reserve Beige Book surveys are not consistent with imminent recession 3. Consensus estimates looking for 3-5% growth in 3Q...base case calls for stall but no recession next year...probabilities declining to below 50% 4. Retail sales strong, gasoline prices off 5. Small companies to see higher interest costs, tightening lending standards, but higher return on cash balances 6. Stress in regional banks is not over 7. Stocks falling below moving averages during recent 8% correction, testing technical support levels; outside of magnificent 7, valuations actually look interesting 8. interest rates moving higher, yield curve flattening - bear steepener, bond market could be negative two years in a row...rare, but creates some opportunity 9. China growth slowing, banking sector capitalization