Charts & Chat - September 28, 2025
Eric Boyce • September 29, 2025
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses:
1. near term trends in economic growth and employment are diverging. Labor weakness giving Fed cover to lower interest rates.
2. recession probability low, bank lending up, goods inflation growth year-over-year is now positive.
3. consumption and retail sales trends are not unfavorable, but record-high credit card balances are.
4. no sign of US dollar disintermediation - Euro as a percent of global reserves remains flat, and record high foreign investment in US stocks.
5. stock valuation higher - possible near term volatility. positive return outlook, however.
6. the diversification power of alternative investments within a portfolio.

By Eric Boyce
•
April 13, 2026
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. final 4Q GDP revision reflects weaker year-end environment. First quarter estimates are trending down, reflecting pressure from geopolitics 2. personal income trending lower, although credit outstanding remains flat 3. PCE prices are elevated, primarily from goods prices - housing continuing to drop 4. energy market impacts from Iran conflict - disproportionate impact on lower income, Asia energy markets 5. forward looking equity returns look to be more limited, following three years of above average returns - private investments will likely play a greater role going forward 6. still a considerable gap on individuals with retirement plans, even at the higher income levels 7. earnings estimates moving higher, especially for tech firms; accordingly, tech P/E multiples back down to overall index average




