Charts & Chat - September 8, 2025
Eric Boyce • September 9, 2025
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses:
1. labor market is losing some steam, especially in tariff-impacted sectors; job growth falling short of breakeven
2. downside risk to payroll growth, unemployment next few months
3. housing market remains challenged due to affordability; prospective buyer traffic/builder confidence weak
4. rise in prime and subprime auto loans as a proxy for credit conditions
5. valuations higher based on price/sales, price/book and price/earnings
6. deceleration of growth in Mag 7 stocks; however, concentration of Mag 7, media and telecom create strong influence over the S&P 500

By Eric Boyce
•
March 30, 2026
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. more data on the impact, duration and persistency of oil price shocks and their impacts on the investment markets and the economy 2. global geopolitical fragmentation increasing, coupled with declining share of fossil fuels as percent of total energy consumption 3. current forecast for first quarter 2026 economic growth is 2.0% 4. 33% of US government will mature this coming year ($10 trillion), which will need to be refinanced at higher rates; 20% of federal tax receipts go to interest on the federal debt 5. trade policy uncertainty declining, while economic policy uncertainty higher 6. seeing some inflationary pressure coming from producer prices in several Fed districts and in import prices 7. more soft sentiment data from consumers; however, retail and consumption data remain favorable amidst favorable financial conditions 8. stock sell off mitigated by strong earnings, increased liquidity 9. since 1949, average bull market lasts 5.3 years and returns 254%; meanwhile, average bear market lasts 1 year and declines 31% 10. private credit sell-off likely overdone, based on actual loss data



