Charts & Chat - Year End Analysis 2023
Eric Boyce • December 24, 2023
CEO Eric Boyce, CFA closes out the year with observations on: 1. Inflation and trends heading into 2024 2. Wages , Growth & Employment 3. Interest burden on government spending 4. Credit quality - consumer and commercial 5. Refinancing risk for commercial real estate 6. slowing consumer spending 7. Home sales and prices looking a little better with lower mtge rates 8. Low Volatility, valuations - stocks priced for goldilocks scenario 9. Stock price breadth improving even if earnings moderate 10. Small caps, value poised to do better in 2024 11. Bond yields expected to fall - providing better returns in 2024...most crowded trade in investments, however...

By Eric Boyce
•
May 11, 2026
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. consumer sentiment remains weak, even as earnings estimates and economic forecasts are moving higher. Investor sentiment moves higher, exacerbating the "K-shaped" economic situation 2. the government's role in the economy is increasing, making political changes a threat to growth - much of that growth is coming in transfer payments to individuals, including Medicare and SSA 3. AI capital spending expected to eclipse US national defense spending in 2027 4. Steel & cattle prices are a proxy for the dramatic rise in the commodity basket and a contributor to weaker sentiment 5. oil inventory levels will reach critical levels by September if nothing changes on Iran 6. wages moving lower, inflation moving higher puts real wage growth at risk 7. Education - the benefits of long term investment horizons on compounded rates of growth and average length of bull markets

By Eric Boyce
•
April 13, 2026
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. final 4Q GDP revision reflects weaker year-end environment. First quarter estimates are trending down, reflecting pressure from geopolitics 2. personal income trending lower, although credit outstanding remains flat 3. PCE prices are elevated, primarily from goods prices - housing continuing to drop 4. energy market impacts from Iran conflict - disproportionate impact on lower income, Asia energy markets 5. forward looking equity returns look to be more limited, following three years of above average returns - private investments will likely play a greater role going forward 6. still a considerable gap on individuals with retirement plans, even at the higher income levels 7. earnings estimates moving higher, especially for tech firms; accordingly, tech P/E multiples back down to overall index average




