July 2025 Newsletter

Eric Boyce • July 1, 2025

Dear Clients and Friends,


As we navigate the current economic landscape, a pervasive sense of uncertainty often dominates headlines and conversations. Whether it's shifting interest rates, geopolitical tensions, or evolving market dynamics, it's natural to feel a heightened awareness of potential challenges. This month, I want to address these feelings directly and offer a perspective on how we approach investment management during such times.


We understand that market fluctuations and economic unknowns can be unsettling. You've entrusted us with your financial well-being, and it's our responsibility to guide you through all market cycles, especially those marked by increased volatility and questions about the future.



Uncertainty is, in many ways, a constant companion in the world of investing. Markets are inherently forward-looking, constantly attempting to price in potential future events, both positive and negative. This means that periods of "certainty" are often fleeting and can sometimes even be dangerous if they lead to complacency. Paradoxically, it is often during times of widespread uncertainty that some of the most compelling long-term opportunities begin to emerge for disciplined investors.


Our core philosophy remains steadfast, particularly when faced with a cloudy outlook:


  • Embrace a Long-Term Perspective: Short-term noise is precisely that – noise. Focusing on your long-term financial goals allows us to filter out the daily headlines and remain committed to a strategy designed for enduring success. History consistently shows that patient investors who weather temporary storms tend to be rewarded over decades.
  • Diversification is Your Shield: A well-diversified portfolio is designed to mitigate the impact of any single sector or asset class underperforming. By spreading investments across various industries, geographies, and asset types, we aim to reduce overall risk and enhance resilience.
  • Avoid Emotional Decisions: Fear and speculation can be powerful drivers, often leading to impulsive choices that deviate from a sound financial plan.


Our role is to provide objective analysis and disciplined execution, ensuring decisions are based on your long-term objectives, not fleeting emotions.


Our approach during uncertain times involves:


  • Vigilant Monitoring: We continuously monitor global economic indicators, market trends, and geopolitical developments to identify potential risks and opportunities.
  • Strategic Adjustments: While we adhere to your long-term plan, we remain flexible enough to make strategic adjustments to your portfolio as conditions warrant, always with a careful eye on risk-adjusted returns.
  • Focus on Fundamentals: We continue to emphasize investing in high-quality assets with strong fundamentals, regardless of short-term market sentiment. These are the companies and investments that tend to perform well over the long haul.


What you can do:


  • Stay Informed, Not Obsessed: Keep abreast of major economic trends, but avoid getting caught up in the minute-by-minute market movements that can fuel anxiety.
  • Revisit Your Goals: If you have any new financial considerations or if your risk tolerance has changed, please reach out to discuss them with me.
  • Maintain Discipline: Trust in the proven principles of long-term investing and the strategy we've built together.


We are committed to helping you navigate this period of uncertainty with confidence. Your financial well-being is our top priority, and we are here to provide the insights and support you need.


Please feel free to schedule a review of your portfolio or discuss any questions you may have.



Sincerely,


Eric Boyce, CFA

President & CEO




Forward-looking statements, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary and non-proprietary research and other sources. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but are not assured as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is neither representation nor warranty as to the current accuracy of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information.


Risks: All investments, including stocks, bonds, commodities, alternative investments and real assets, should be considered speculative in nature and could involve risk of loss. All investors are advised to fully understand all risks associated with any kind of investment they choose to make. Hypothetical or simulated performance is not indicative of future results.


Investment advisory services offered through Boyce & Associates Wealth Consulting, Inc., a registered investment adviser. Boyce & Associates Wealth Consulting, Inc. has Representatives Licensed to sell Life Insurance in TX and other states.









By Eric Boyce September 29, 2025
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. near term trends in economic growth and employment are diverging. Labor weakness giving Fed cover to lower interest rates. 2. recession probability low, bank lending up, goods inflation growth year-over-year is now positive. 3. consumption and retail sales trends are not unfavorable, but record-high credit card balances are. 4. no sign of US dollar disintermediation - Euro as a percent of global reserves remains flat, and record high foreign investment in US stocks. 5. stock valuation higher - possible near term volatility. positive return outlook, however. 6. the diversification power of alternative investments within a portfolio.
By Eric Boyce September 22, 2025
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. Discussion of Leading economic indicators - negative trends last few years, but coincident indicators continue to move higher 2. Strong relative performance from gold - still viable as a diversification tool 3. money market balances still rising ($7.7 trillion) - lots of market liquidity available 4. infrastructure spending driven by AI, especially in the US - spending likely to continue for several years 5. tariff revenue now 18% of household income tax receipts 6. consumer spending trending down, earnings estimate growth largely driven by Mag 7, tech stocks
By Eric Boyce September 9, 2025
By Eric Boyce September 9, 2025
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. labor market is losing some steam, especially in tariff-impacted sectors; job growth falling short of breakeven 2. downside risk to payroll growth, unemployment next few months 3. housing market remains challenged due to affordability; prospective buyer traffic/builder confidence weak 4. rise in prime and subprime auto loans as a proxy for credit conditions 5. valuations higher based on price/sales, price/book and price/earnings 6. deceleration of growth in Mag 7 stocks; however, concentration of Mag 7, media and telecom create strong influence over the S&P 500
By Eric Boyce September 2, 2025
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. housing affordability woes, electricity prices moving up with data center demand 2. sentiment much higher for the higher income population than for lower incomes 3. Atlanta Fed GDP estimate 3.5% annualized for 3rd quarter, despite slowing in consumer spending 4. valuations high, but forward performance coming off a market high is very respectable 5. market breadth improving, foreign ownership increasing, margins balances increasing 6. market expects 0.25% rate decrease in September, but inflation (PCE) has picked up and likely to move slightly higher next few months 7. yields converging, yield curve steepening, NO sign of recession in the high yield market 8. Foreign central banks now hold more gold than US treasuries
By Eric Boyce September 1, 2025
Dear Clients and Friends,
By Thomas Kemler September 1, 2025
When business owners seek an accurate valuation of their enterprise, choosing a qualified professional is crucial. Among the credentials available in the valuation industry, the Certified Valuation Analyst (CVA) accreditation, granted by the National Association of Certified Valuators and Analysts (NACVA), stands out as one of the most respected and comprehensive. Here’s why employing a CVA-accredited expert is the best decision for any business owner looking to determine the true value of their business. First, CVAs undergo rigorous training and a demanding examination process that ensures they possess deep expertise in valuation principles, market analysis, and financial statement assessment. This specialized knowledge goes well beyond basic accounting or financial analysis. NACVA’s ongoing education requirements mean that CVAs stay current with evolving valuation standards, tax laws, legal precedents, and industry practices. Second, the credibility and professionalism of a CVA-accredited expert are recognized in various legal and financial settings. Courts, regulatory bodies, banks, and investors often demand valuations prepared by experts with certifications like the CVA, as these provide the added assurance of objectivity and methodological soundness. When selling a business, applying for a loan, addressing shareholder disputes, or complying with IRS requirements, a valuation report signed by a CVA can withstand intense scrutiny and enhance stakeholder confidence. Additionally, NACVA enforces a strict code of ethical conduct for its members. Business owners can trust that a CVA will maintain independence, confidentiality, and transparency throughout the valuation process. This professional integrity reduces the risk of conflicts of interest or biased results, ensuring that valuation conclusions are fair and impartial. Lastly, a CVA takes a holistic approach, considering not only historical financials, but also industry trends, economic conditions, intellectual property, and operational strengths and weaknesses. This comprehensive view results in a more accurate and defensible valuation— critical for strategic planning, mergers and acquisitions, succession planning, or litigation support. In summary, engaging a NACVA-accredited CVA provides unparalleled expertise, credibility, ethical assurance, and a robust valuation process. Your business is not only a source of income, but also your life’s work. It can be your most valuable personal asset. You’ll want to have an accurate understanding of its value, and a CVA can provide that.
By Eric Boyce August 18, 2025
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. Look back at lack of manufacturing growth following 2018 tariffs 2. Tariff revenue high; potential upside in capital spending in advanced manufacturing, sources of power for data centers, and other infrastructure spending 3. Misery index not foreshadowing recession; small business credit conditions remain tight 4. freight volumes, pricing subdued - may portend slowdown in consumer spending 5. consumer delinquencies picking up in some areas; paying close attention to trends 6. market breadth thin - not your father's S&P 500 anymore 7. drawdowns lead to opportunity; bond volatility higher than equity volatility & may be more seasonal than we think
By Eric Boyce August 11, 2025
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. Stocks have moved higher over the long term despite variations in price/earnings multiples 2. S&P 500 index is inherently different from even 10 years ago; volatility and intra-year drawdowns are absolutely normal and can lead to generous long term returns if one is patient and diligent 3. the power of long term compounded return and diversification - stocks versus bonds and cash; stocks have considerably more volatility than bonds 4. The importance of being diligent on monitoring inflation - trends in service inflation, wages provide dilemma for Fed on interest rates 5. Boom in infrastructure spending, notably data centers 6. Surge in new business applications bodes well for entrepreneurship 7. Big opportunity in offshore Asia private credit and private equity
By Eric Boyce August 5, 2025
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. The slowing in the labor economy due to tariffs, etc. 2. 2nd quarter GDP reflected reversal from 1Q - real read through is slowdown in final sales to private domestic purchasers 3. In 25 years, persons over 55 yrs of age own 20% more of the total household assets...implications for wealth planning and transfer 4. Potential implication on long-term interest rates from increased deficits from OBBBA 5. Second quarter earnings stronger than expected; profit margins holding steady amidst increased tariffs 6. Updates on housing starts/sentiment, consumer financial health, PMI data, consumer sentiment
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