Charts & Chat - January 14, 2024
Eric Boyce • January 14, 2024
This week, CEO Eric Boyce discusses:
1. recent inflation data, implications, risks of higher shipping costs
2. update on wages, rents
3. growth outlook and risk of recession heading into 2024
4. personal credit update
5. commercial lending tighter, rise of the non-bank
6. business sentiment weaker, but financial condition looks better
7. commodity (lumbar) cost relief; domestic oil production higher
8. equity optimism high, what that means for expected returns.
9. higher equity margins and earnings expected

By Eric Boyce
•
May 11, 2026
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. consumer sentiment remains weak, even as earnings estimates and economic forecasts are moving higher. Investor sentiment moves higher, exacerbating the "K-shaped" economic situation 2. the government's role in the economy is increasing, making political changes a threat to growth - much of that growth is coming in transfer payments to individuals, including Medicare and SSA 3. AI capital spending expected to eclipse US national defense spending in 2027 4. Steel & cattle prices are a proxy for the dramatic rise in the commodity basket and a contributor to weaker sentiment 5. oil inventory levels will reach critical levels by September if nothing changes on Iran 6. wages moving lower, inflation moving higher puts real wage growth at risk 7. Education - the benefits of long term investment horizons on compounded rates of growth and average length of bull markets

By Eric Boyce
•
April 13, 2026
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. final 4Q GDP revision reflects weaker year-end environment. First quarter estimates are trending down, reflecting pressure from geopolitics 2. personal income trending lower, although credit outstanding remains flat 3. PCE prices are elevated, primarily from goods prices - housing continuing to drop 4. energy market impacts from Iran conflict - disproportionate impact on lower income, Asia energy markets 5. forward looking equity returns look to be more limited, following three years of above average returns - private investments will likely play a greater role going forward 6. still a considerable gap on individuals with retirement plans, even at the higher income levels 7. earnings estimates moving higher, especially for tech firms; accordingly, tech P/E multiples back down to overall index average




