Holiday Outlook: Soft-Landing Hopes, Election Risks

Newsletter — November 2024

Dear Clients and Friends,

As we look ahead to the 2024 holidays, investor sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, fueled by equal parts interest rate cuts, earnings growth, and meaningful growth in certain economic data like retail sales. 

Market volatility, which usually picks up before presidential elections, has remained muted in the face of the relatively positive developments noted above.  Valuations are by no means cheap, but earnings expectations looking into 2025 remain favorable.  

While there are reasons for continued hope along the path of a soft landing, several key factors could influence volatility in the months ahead:

Sources of Optimism:

Potential Headwinds:

Diversification across markets, geography, and sectors certainly matters, and we continue to find reasonable investment themes which we find attractive.  Assuming we continue to witness economic growth, we think that, in a general sense, investments should follow – although not all boats will rise as much or as quickly. 

As we welcome the Thanksgiving holiday later this month, we are certainly grateful for the many blessings we have received during the past year.  We are especially grateful for all our wonderful clients, and we appreciate very much the opportunity to serve you.  We wish you safe travels during this holiday season if you are traveling, and we hope that you are all able to take some time out of your busy lives and enjoy precious time with family.   

Sincerely,  

Eric Boyce, CFA

President & CEO