June 2025 Newsletter

Eric Boyce • June 1, 2025

Dear Clients and Friends,


As we reflect on the current investment landscape entering April 2025, we want to address the topic of market volatility and how we are managing your portfolio in this environment.


Understanding Current Market Dynamics:


As we step into June, the vibrant energy of summer is palpable, and the financial markets continue to present both opportunities and areas requiring careful consideration. Based on recent economic data and global developments, we have observed several key trends shaping the investment landscape as we approach the midpoint of 2025.


Economic Snapshot


First quarter economic growth was negative largely due to a rash of imports ahead of announced tariffs. News flow coming out of Washington has been fluid and unpredictable, although the aggressive rhetoric associated with the “Liberation Day” announcement in early April seems to have died down a bit. Notwithstanding, uncertainty is the word of the day. More recent “soft data” reflected in consumer sentiment, business surveys and leading economic indicators have been notably weak; meanwhile, we are just beginning to see some of the impact of recently announced tariffs in some of the so-called “hard data”, including orders for durable goods.


In addition, recent announcements from large retailers like Home Depot and Wal Mart reflect a distinct possibility of profit margin pressure ahead for corporate America. This, in turn, could impact an otherwise resilient labor market. With the average tariff on goods trade rising from 2.5% to ~14% or so, we would expect a fair amount of volatility in the data during the coming months.


The service economy, larger in scope than the goods manufacturing sector, has offered a bit of counterweight as of late, and it is certainly not a foregone conclusion that economic growth will be negative in the second quarter. Services will have to overcome slower government spending, investment, and net trade.


We do think the tone and rhetoric with the new administration has likely altered for the time being how other countries view the United States, and it remains to be seen how regional and global alliances will ultimately evolve and shape global economics over the next couple of years.

The risk of tariffs leading to near-term inflation continues to be a central theme. In addition, we saw a dramatic rise in the mentions of “stagflation” in recent corporate earnings calls.


Accordingly, this rather nuanced picture means the Federal Reserve is likely to remain vigilant, carefully assessing data before making significant policy shifts regarding interest rates. The market expects at least two short-term rate cuts this year, although the risk of tariff-induced inflation could delay those moves. The central bank is indeed in a tough spot.


Market Performance & Outlook


  • Equities: Equity markets have demonstrated resilience, following one of the more volatile months in recent memory. The focus appears to have shifted to larger companies exhibiting strong profitability and financial condition. While broad market indices show mixed and volatile performance year-to-date, some sectors have done reasonably well. In addition, we are also seeing renewed interest in quality dividend-paying stocks, which offer a potential buffer against volatility. International equities have been a bright spot.


  • Fixed Income: The fixed income market remains range bound, and the yield curve has flattened out a bit. Overall rates remain high, pushed up recently by the modest downgrade of US treasury debt by Moody’s rating service. Longer term rates remain anchored by longer term growth concerns; meanwhile, credit spreads have widened based on economic uncertainty, but do not yet signal elevated concern.


  • Commodities: Commodity markets remain sensitive to global demand and supply dynamics, as well as geopolitical developments. Gold remains the “go to” asset in a risk-off environment, and energy prices, which are influenced by production and global growth forecasts, remain weak. Diversification within this asset class remains important to helping manage overall portfolio risk.


Key Considerations for Your Portfolio:


1. Quality over Quantity: In this environment, prioritizing companies with strong fundamentals, healthy cash flows, and sustainable business models is paramount.


2. Strategic Diversification: Maintaining a well-diversified portfolio across various asset classes, sectors, and geographies remains your best defense against unexpected market movements. History has proven time and time again that patience and persistence in maintaining your investment policy through volatile times generally leads to very respectable long-term performance.


3. Adaptability: The market continues to be dynamic. We emphasize the importance of regular portfolio reviews to ensure your investments remain aligned with your financial goals and risk tolerance.


Looking Ahead:


As we head into the second half of 2025, we anticipate that uncertainty will persist and that headlines will be almost as important as the fundamentals for risk-based assets. We continue to implement tools like structured investments to help take advantage of volatility when it presents itself, while also providing some downside protection and potential for higher income or enhanced growth over the next few years.


We will have to wait another month or so for the next round of company earnings reports and the first reading of second quarter economic growth. Our team will certainly be monitoring these events, as well as signs of potential Federal Reserve policy changes, geopolitical developments, and trade policy in an effort to find new opportunities and mitigate potential risks for your portfolio.


We are committed to providing you with personalized guidance through every market cycle. Please do not hesitate to reach out if you have any questions or would like to schedule a review of your current investment strategy.

Wishing you a productive and enjoyable start to summer!


Sincerely,


Eric Boyce, CFA

President & CEO




Forward-looking statements, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary and non-proprietary research and other sources. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but are not assured as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is neither representation nor warranty as to the current accuracy of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information.


Risks: All investments, including stocks, bonds, commodities, alternative investments and real assets, should be considered speculative in nature and could involve risk of loss. All investors are advised to fully understand all risks associated with any kind of investment they choose to make. Hypothetical or simulated performance is not indicative of future results.


Investment advisory services offered through Boyce & Associates Wealth Consulting, Inc., a registered investment adviser. Boyce & Associates Wealth Consulting, Inc. has Representatives Licensed to sell Life Insurance in TX and other states.









By Eric Boyce October 7, 2025
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. economic forecasts has consistently been wrong this year; however, Atlanta Fed GDP Now has been relatively accurate - predicting strong growth in 3Q 2025 2. financial conditions have improved, but so have inflation expectations. Fed has dual mandate, but weakening labor market is the primary focus right now 3. lower US dollar can help fuel inflation, Federal Reserve regional surveys show increase in prices paid 4. low credit spreads, capital spending plans higher, trade policy uncertainty moving lower - no signal of recession at this point 5. private equity and credit markets continue to expend in size and importance
By Kelly Griggs October 1, 2025
Life will always throw curveballs- it’s not a matter of if, but when. The question is, will you be prepared when financial storms come your way? Having a solid, secure financial plan is less about predicting the future and more about being ready for uncertainty and building a foundation that gives you confidence. Building a Confident Financial Plan A strong plan puts you in a position of strength. Preparation doesn’t stop the storm, but it helps you act with clarity instead of panic. Without one, people often find themselves dipping into savings, relying on credit, or feeling overwhelmed by stress. These are warning signs that your financial health may need attention and that you may be reacting instead of leading your financial life. Similarly, preparation today ensures that no matter what happens- rising inflation, interest rate hikes, or even geopolitical shocks- you are not caught off guard. When you’ve already thought through possible scenarios, you can respond wisely instead of scrambling for quick fixes. Steps to Get Started 1. Get Clarity on What You Want. Start by asking: Does my money reflect my priorities? Review your spending over the last three months without judgment. This exercise will reveal whether your dollars are working toward your goals or drifting elsewhere. 2. Define Your Goals. What do you truly want your life to look like? A confident plan aligns your finances with your dreams—whether that’s building wealth, securing retirement, funding education, or creating meaningful experiences with family. Hope is not a strategy; clear goals are. 3. Make Your Money Work for You. Once you know what matters most, position your money intentionally. That could mean saving systematically, investing for long-term growth, or using insurance to preserve what you’ve built and provide stability no matter what comes your way. Take Action Now Most people don’t fail because they made bad decisions—they fail because they made no decisions. Inaction comes at a cost, while small, purposeful steps build confidence and momentum over time. Your financial future doesn’t have to feel uncertain. By crafting a plan now, you create security, resilience, and the ability to face life’s storms with strength, knowing you’ve taken intentional steps to protect your future.
By Eric Boyce October 1, 2025
Dear Clients and Friends,
By Eric Boyce September 29, 2025
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. near term trends in economic growth and employment are diverging. Labor weakness giving Fed cover to lower interest rates. 2. recession probability low, bank lending up, goods inflation growth year-over-year is now positive. 3. consumption and retail sales trends are not unfavorable, but record-high credit card balances are. 4. no sign of US dollar disintermediation - Euro as a percent of global reserves remains flat, and record high foreign investment in US stocks. 5. stock valuation higher - possible near term volatility. positive return outlook, however. 6. the diversification power of alternative investments within a portfolio.
By Boyce & Associates September 25, 2025
Investment management is the professional oversight of assets with the objective of meeting specific financial goals. It includes portfolio construction, risk management, and alignment with an individual’s financial plan . While portfolio growth is important, the primary purpose of investment management is to ensure that capital is allocated intentionally to support long-term financial confidence, rather than focusing on short-term market gains.  At Boyce & Associates Wealth Consulting , our philosophy centers on capital preservation and clear alignment with each client’s financial objectives. The sections below outline the definition, principles, and strategies that inform effective investment management, and clarify its primary goal. Investment Wealth Management Definition Investment wealth management is the process of managing a person’s financial assets that support their long-term goals. It involves making decisions about where to invest money, such as in stocks, bonds, or other assets, based on the client’s financial situation, risk tolerance, and objectives. At its core, investment wealth management combines portfolio oversight with a broader financial plan. This involves building and managing an investment strategy while also considering factors such as retirement timelines, tax implications, income needs, and estate planning. The goal is for every investment to support the client’s overall financial picture. Main Goal of Investment Management The goal of investment management is to grow and preserve wealth that supports an individual’s financial objectives. It is not about chasing the highest returns or reacting to market trends. Instead, it focuses on intentional growth within a disciplined and risk-managed strategy. At the center of this approach is principal protection , a priority for many individuals and families, especially retirees, business owners, and those with significant assets. Preserving the money you’ve already earned is often more important than trying to maximize gains. Effective investment management is part of creating a plan for the life you want . For example, someone nearing retirement may need to generate income from their investments while also ensuring their savings last. Their portfolio would likely include a mix of conservative investments, structured withdrawals, and tax-aware planning, all aimed at supporting a stable lifestyle rather than chasing aggressive market gains. Examples of Investment Goals Across Different Life Stages Early Career : Building savings for future goals, such as buying a home or starting a family. Mid-Life : Growing assets for retirement, funding children’s education, or investing in a business. Pre-Retirement : Reducing investment risk, increasing cash flow, and preparing for healthcare costs. Retirement : Generating reliable income, minimizing taxes, and preserving against outliving savings. Legacy Planning : Preserving wealth for future generations, supporting charitable giving, and managing estate transfer. Each of these goals requires a tailored investment approach that aligns with the client’s stage of life, priorities, and risk tolerance. Why Do People Go Into Investment Management Many people turn to investment managers when their financial situation becomes more complex or when they want help making informed, long-term decisions. Common reasons include: Lack of time or expertise Most individuals lack the time to research markets or manage risk independently. They want a professional to handle the details so they can focus on work, family, or personal priorities. Need for tax-efficient strategies As income and investments grow, so does the need to manage taxes. A thoughtful investment plan can help reduce tax impact and improve after-tax returns over time. Increased financial complexity Life events, such as retirement, divorce, inheritance, or selling a business, bring new financial challenges. Investment management provides structure and support during these transitions. Outgrowing DIY investing Many start by managing their own investments, but eventually seek expert guidance to preserve what they’ve built and ensure their portfolio aligns with long-term goals. Professional investment management brings clarity and coordination, especially when wealth, responsibilities, or financial risks increase. 4 Principles That Guide Successful Investment Management A successful investment management strategy is built on four core principles: Philosophy, Process, People, and Performance . These elements provide structure and consistency in managing wealth over time. 1. Philosophy Investment philosophy is the guiding belief behind how money is managed. It reflects the approach taken toward risk, returns, market behavior, and decision-making. A well-defined philosophy helps ensure that investment choices are made consistently, even during periods of market uncertainty. 2. Process Process refers to the step-by-step method used to design, implement, and monitor an investment strategy. This includes the selection of investments, the adjustment of portfolios over time, and the management of risks. A clear process supports disciplined decision-making and reduces the influence of emotion or short-term market noise. 3. People Investment management involves human judgment and relationships. The “people” principle highlights the importance of experienced professionals who understand the financial landscape and the client’s personal goals. Trust and effective communication are essential to building a long-term, effective advisory relationship. 4. Performance Performance measures how well an investment strategy meets its intended goals. It’s not just about returns, but about achieving outcomes in line with the client’s timeline, risk tolerance, and objectives. Long-term, goal-based performance is more meaningful than short-term market results. What Makes a Strategy Effective? Investment Goals and Examples An effective investment strategy should consider not only potential returns but also stability, flexibility, and alignment with personal objectives. Investment goals often vary based on life stage and responsibilities. Below are examples of common goals and the types of strategies that can help support them: Funding retirement by a certain age A long-term, diversified portfolio focused on stable growth and income can help ensure that assets are available to support lifestyle needs in retirement. Preserving wealth across generations A strategy that includes tax planning, risk management , and estate coordination can help ensure assets are transferred efficiently and remain preserved. Creating passive income streams Investments such as dividend-paying stocks, bonds, or real estate can be used to generate regular income without depleting the principal. Each of these goals requires a customized investment plan . There is no one-size-fits-all solution. A strategy is effective when it is realistic, carefully managed, and flexible enough to adjust to changing life circumstances. Investment Strategies for Wealth Management Below are four core strategies commonly employed in well-structured portfolios. Each strategy plays a distinct role in managing risk, enhancing returns, and keeping investments aligned with personal objectives. Asset allocation Asset allocation is the process of dividing investments among various asset categories, including stocks, bonds, and cash. The goal is to balance risk and return based on the investor’s timeline, financial goals, and level of risk tolerance. For example, a younger investor might hold more stocks for growth, while someone near retirement might shift toward bonds for stability and income. Diversification Diversification refers to spreading investments across a range of assets, industries, and regions. A stock that is spread out is better prepared to handle market fluctuations while still pursuing long-term growth. AA/Diversification Disclosure Neither Asset Allocation nor Diversification guarantees a profit or protects against a loss in a declining market. They are methods used to help manage investment risk. Tax-loss harvesting Tax-loss harvesting involves selling stocks to offset tax liabilities resulting from gains from other investments, thereby balancing out the value of these gains. This strategy helps reduce capital gains taxes and can improve after-tax returns. The proceeds from the sale are often reinvested, making similar, but not identical, purchases to keep the portfolio’s overall strategy. Rebalancing Rebalancing means adjusting the portfolio to bring it back in line with the original investment plan. Over time, some investments may grow faster than others, shifting the balance of the portfolio. Rebalancing Disclosure Rebalancing/Reallocating can entail transaction costs and tax consequences that should be considered when determining a rebalancing/reallocation strategy. Frequently Asked Questions About Investment Management What is the 10 5 3 rule of investment? The 10-5-3 rule is a basic guideline that reflects average long-term returns for different types of investments: 10% return from stocks 5% return from bonds 3% return from cash or savings These are not guarantees but estimates based on historical performance. The rule helps set realistic expectations and shows how different investment types carry different levels of risk and reward. It's especially useful when planning long-term goals, such as retirement. What type of investment is best for beginners? For most beginners, the best investments are those that are easy to understand, low-cost, and widely diversified. Common starting points include: Index funds: These track the overall market and are simple, low-cost options. Target-date funds: These automatically adjust the investment mix based on your expected retirement year. Robo-advisors: These offer automated portfolio management with little setup. MF/ETF Disclosure: Mutual Funds and Exchange Traded Funds (ETF’s) are sold by prospectus. Please consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing. The prospectus, which contains this and other information about the investment company, can be obtained from the Fund Company or your financial professional. Be sure to read the prospectus carefully before deciding whether to invest. An investment in the Fund involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Your goals, risk, and other factors will help you make the best decision on how involved you want to be. Starting with a simple, balanced approach is often the most effective way to proceed. What is the safest investment with the highest returns? No investment is completely risk-free, but some are considered safer than others. Typically, U.S. Treasury bonds, high-yield savings accounts, and certificates of deposit (CDs) are among the safest options. However, safety often comes at the expense of lower returns. If you're seeking higher returns with limited risk, a diversified portfolio that combines stocks and bonds may offer a balanced solution. It’s essential to find the right balance based on your timeline and comfort level with risk, rather than prioritizing the highest return alone. Tax/Legal Disclosure Boyce & Associates Wealth Consulting does not offer legal or tax advice. Please consult a professional regarding your individual circumstances. Blog Disclosure This blog contains general information that may not be suitable for everyone. The information contained herein should not be construed as personalized investment advice. There is no guarantee that the views and opinions expressed in this blog will come to pass. Investing in the stock market involves gains and losses and may not be suitable for all investors. Information presented herein is subject to change without notice and should not be considered as a solicitation to buy or sell any security. (FirmName) does not offer legal or tax advice. Please consult the appropriate professional regarding your individual circumstance. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
By Eric Boyce September 22, 2025
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. Discussion of Leading economic indicators - negative trends last few years, but coincident indicators continue to move higher 2. Strong relative performance from gold - still viable as a diversification tool 3. money market balances still rising ($7.7 trillion) - lots of market liquidity available 4. infrastructure spending driven by AI, especially in the US - spending likely to continue for several years 5. tariff revenue now 18% of household income tax receipts 6. consumer spending trending down, earnings estimate growth largely driven by Mag 7, tech stocks
By Eric Boyce September 9, 2025
By Eric Boyce September 9, 2025
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. labor market is losing some steam, especially in tariff-impacted sectors; job growth falling short of breakeven 2. downside risk to payroll growth, unemployment next few months 3. housing market remains challenged due to affordability; prospective buyer traffic/builder confidence weak 4. rise in prime and subprime auto loans as a proxy for credit conditions 5. valuations higher based on price/sales, price/book and price/earnings 6. deceleration of growth in Mag 7 stocks; however, concentration of Mag 7, media and telecom create strong influence over the S&P 500
By Eric Boyce September 2, 2025
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. housing affordability woes, electricity prices moving up with data center demand 2. sentiment much higher for the higher income population than for lower incomes 3. Atlanta Fed GDP estimate 3.5% annualized for 3rd quarter, despite slowing in consumer spending 4. valuations high, but forward performance coming off a market high is very respectable 5. market breadth improving, foreign ownership increasing, margins balances increasing 6. market expects 0.25% rate decrease in September, but inflation (PCE) has picked up and likely to move slightly higher next few months 7. yields converging, yield curve steepening, NO sign of recession in the high yield market 8. Foreign central banks now hold more gold than US treasuries
By Eric Boyce September 1, 2025
Dear Clients and Friends,
Show More