This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. labor market is losing some steam, especially in tariff-impacted sectors; job growth falling short of breakeven 2. downside risk to payroll growth, unemployment next few months 3. housing market remains challenged due to affordability; prospective buyer traffic/builder confidence weak 4. rise in prime and subprime auto loans as a proxy for credit conditions 5. valuations higher based on price/sales, price/book and price/earnings 6. deceleration of growth in Mag 7 stocks; however, concentration of Mag 7, media and telecom create strong influence over the S&P 500
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. housing affordability woes, electricity prices moving up with data center demand 2. sentiment much higher for the higher income population than for lower incomes 3. Atlanta Fed GDP estimate 3.5% annualized for 3rd quarter, despite slowing in consumer spending 4. valuations high, but forward performance coming off a market high is very respectable 5. market breadth improving, foreign ownership increasing, margins balances increasing 6. market expects 0.25% rate decrease in September, but inflation (PCE) has picked up and likely to move slightly higher next few months 7. yields converging, yield curve steepening, NO sign of recession in the high yield market 8. Foreign central banks now hold more gold than US treasuries
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. Look back at lack of manufacturing growth following 2018 tariffs 2. Tariff revenue high; potential upside in capital spending in advanced manufacturing, sources of power for data centers, and other infrastructure spending 3. Misery index not foreshadowing recession; small business credit conditions remain tight 4. freight volumes, pricing subdued - may portend slowdown in consumer spending 5. consumer delinquencies picking up in some areas; paying close attention to trends 6. market breadth thin - not your father's S&P 500 anymore 7. drawdowns lead to opportunity; bond volatility higher than equity volatility & may be more seasonal than we think
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. Stocks have moved higher over the long term despite variations in price/earnings multiples 2. S&P 500 index is inherently different from even 10 years ago; volatility and intra-year drawdowns are absolutely normal and can lead to generous long term returns if one is patient and diligent 3. the power of long term compounded return and diversification - stocks versus bonds and cash; stocks have considerably more volatility than bonds 4. The importance of being diligent on monitoring inflation - trends in service inflation, wages provide dilemma for Fed on interest rates 5. Boom in infrastructure spending, notably data centers 6. Surge in new business applications bodes well for entrepreneurship 7. Big opportunity in offshore Asia private credit and private equity
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. The slowing in the labor economy due to tariffs, etc. 2. 2nd quarter GDP reflected reversal from 1Q - real read through is slowdown in final sales to private domestic purchasers 3. In 25 years, persons over 55 yrs of age own 20% more of the total household assets...implications for wealth planning and transfer 4. Potential implication on long-term interest rates from increased deficits from OBBBA 5. Second quarter earnings stronger than expected; profit margins holding steady amidst increased tariffs 6. Updates on housing starts/sentiment, consumer financial health, PMI data, consumer sentiment
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. small business remain high due to trade policy 2. GDP likely to rebound - I discuss the drivers of the near term reversal and what to expect 3. US dollar weakness - what are the implications, and what is the relationship between inflation and interest rates 4. Recession probability remains low; long term inflation remains anchored 5. analysis of how many businesses are planning to pass through tariffs to customers 6. Trade war likely to take ~0.9% off GDP (per Apollo) - bigger than any most countries. 7. Analyzing debt, consumer credit and spending trends 8. Trends in earnings estimates, investor sentiment 9. college education costs expected to be up +9% year-over-year
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. Analysis of recent and upcoming economic growth and consumer spending data 2. Capital spending, housing slowing, money supply now increasing again 3. Deficit/Debt expectations 4. Updated tariff expectations on inflation, growth, etc. 5. Latest expectations for the social security trust fund 6. Trends in stock valuations, earnings and operating profit margins
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. Implications from the bombing of Iran 2. looking ahead to possibilities surrounding the expiration of the 90 day tariff moratorium 3. foreign ownership of equities rising/US v. International valuations are well out of line with trends 4. sources of concern for consumers & probability of recession 5. private capital exits remain sluggish and new capital raises falling below recent trend due in part to uncertainty
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. What CEO's are worried about the most 2. equity market valuations, sentiment, high retail investor ownership levels and potential opportunities 3. consumer and producer inflation indicators below expectations; tariff-based inflation likely be on the horizon, but not viewed as recessionary or particularly long lasting 4. consumers have pulled back on spending; soft data strengthening with tariff abatements and better equity markets 5. state of housing - rents may go up later this year; home price growth likely to slow 6. Banks more willing to lend; delinquencies higher, but may have peaked 7. analysis of weakening Chinese demographics, credit quality, household debt to GDP, lending activity and weakness within the real estate and corporate sectors
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. labor market is losing some steam, especially in tariff-impacted sectors; job growth falling short of breakeven 2. downside risk to payroll growth, unemployment next few months 3. housing market remains challenged due to affordability; prospective buyer traffic/builder confidence weak 4. rise in prime and subprime auto loans as a proxy for credit conditions 5. valuations higher based on price/sales, price/book and price/earnings 6. deceleration of growth in Mag 7 stocks; however, concentration of Mag 7, media and telecom create strong influence over the S&P 500
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. housing affordability woes, electricity prices moving up with data center demand 2. sentiment much higher for the higher income population than for lower incomes 3. Atlanta Fed GDP estimate 3.5% annualized for 3rd quarter, despite slowing in consumer spending 4. valuations high, but forward performance coming off a market high is very respectable 5. market breadth improving, foreign ownership increasing, margins balances increasing 6. market expects 0.25% rate decrease in September, but inflation (PCE) has picked up and likely to move slightly higher next few months 7. yields converging, yield curve steepening, NO sign of recession in the high yield market 8. Foreign central banks now hold more gold than US treasuries
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. Look back at lack of manufacturing growth following 2018 tariffs 2. Tariff revenue high; potential upside in capital spending in advanced manufacturing, sources of power for data centers, and other infrastructure spending 3. Misery index not foreshadowing recession; small business credit conditions remain tight 4. freight volumes, pricing subdued - may portend slowdown in consumer spending 5. consumer delinquencies picking up in some areas; paying close attention to trends 6. market breadth thin - not your father's S&P 500 anymore 7. drawdowns lead to opportunity; bond volatility higher than equity volatility & may be more seasonal than we think
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. Stocks have moved higher over the long term despite variations in price/earnings multiples 2. S&P 500 index is inherently different from even 10 years ago; volatility and intra-year drawdowns are absolutely normal and can lead to generous long term returns if one is patient and diligent 3. the power of long term compounded return and diversification - stocks versus bonds and cash; stocks have considerably more volatility than bonds 4. The importance of being diligent on monitoring inflation - trends in service inflation, wages provide dilemma for Fed on interest rates 5. Boom in infrastructure spending, notably data centers 6. Surge in new business applications bodes well for entrepreneurship 7. Big opportunity in offshore Asia private credit and private equity
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. The slowing in the labor economy due to tariffs, etc. 2. 2nd quarter GDP reflected reversal from 1Q - real read through is slowdown in final sales to private domestic purchasers 3. In 25 years, persons over 55 yrs of age own 20% more of the total household assets...implications for wealth planning and transfer 4. Potential implication on long-term interest rates from increased deficits from OBBBA 5. Second quarter earnings stronger than expected; profit margins holding steady amidst increased tariffs 6. Updates on housing starts/sentiment, consumer financial health, PMI data, consumer sentiment
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. small business remain high due to trade policy 2. GDP likely to rebound - I discuss the drivers of the near term reversal and what to expect 3. US dollar weakness - what are the implications, and what is the relationship between inflation and interest rates 4. Recession probability remains low; long term inflation remains anchored 5. analysis of how many businesses are planning to pass through tariffs to customers 6. Trade war likely to take ~0.9% off GDP (per Apollo) - bigger than any most countries. 7. Analyzing debt, consumer credit and spending trends 8. Trends in earnings estimates, investor sentiment 9. college education costs expected to be up +9% year-over-year
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. Analysis of recent and upcoming economic growth and consumer spending data 2. Capital spending, housing slowing, money supply now increasing again 3. Deficit/Debt expectations 4. Updated tariff expectations on inflation, growth, etc. 5. Latest expectations for the social security trust fund 6. Trends in stock valuations, earnings and operating profit margins
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. Implications from the bombing of Iran 2. looking ahead to possibilities surrounding the expiration of the 90 day tariff moratorium 3. foreign ownership of equities rising/US v. International valuations are well out of line with trends 4. sources of concern for consumers & probability of recession 5. private capital exits remain sluggish and new capital raises falling below recent trend due in part to uncertainty
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. What CEO's are worried about the most 2. equity market valuations, sentiment, high retail investor ownership levels and potential opportunities 3. consumer and producer inflation indicators below expectations; tariff-based inflation likely be on the horizon, but not viewed as recessionary or particularly long lasting 4. consumers have pulled back on spending; soft data strengthening with tariff abatements and better equity markets 5. state of housing - rents may go up later this year; home price growth likely to slow 6. Banks more willing to lend; delinquencies higher, but may have peaked 7. analysis of weakening Chinese demographics, credit quality, household debt to GDP, lending activity and weakness within the real estate and corporate sectors
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. changes in the first quarter economic growth report 2. trade and dollar comments following the trade court decision 3. Fed in tough spot; inflation v. growth worry - impact on recession probability 4. Earnings and profits expectations - likely some slowing second half of 2025 but not catastrophic 5. Richmond Fed - slight improvement in expectations, although uncertainty remains a driver 6. housing clearly still stuck in low gear due to affordability 7. analysis of hard data - order, bankruptcies, etc does not reflect crisis situation 8. discussion of strong correlation between gold and dollar 9. energy stocks imply strong pricing heading into summer driving season 10. discussion of dynamic shifts within the S&P 500 index 11. private markets slow getting out of 2025 gate; institutional investments expected to increase, but new activity appears slow