4th Quarter Perspective | OCTOBER 2023

Eric Boyce • October 1, 2023

Greetings to our extended Boyce & Associates Family and Friends,

We’ve had a busy summer following our company rebranding and celebration, with most of our staff taking some time to be with their families, trying to beat the heat, and get ready for the fall and new year. As we look forward to the fall, cooler weather, football, and hopefully a little rain, we take stock of the ever fluid environment within the investment markets.


Our team has been staying on top of recent developments that matter for portfolios heading into the 4th quarter of 2023. The investment markets have certainly acted better thus far in 2023 than last year; however, the crosscurrents remain somewhat mixed. We know that inflation is in retreat, albeit slowly, and the Federal Reserve has indicated that it is close to the end of its interest rate increases. Although energy prices have clearly increased as of late, core inflation expectations are well anchored over the next 2-3 years, and we are confident that prices will continue to drop. In fact, if you exclude food and energy and certain measures of housing costs, we have made fairly measurable progress in lowering inflation. But getting to the ultimate inflation target will take time and patience, as there is still some heavy lifting ahead of us.


Investment markets are still trying to assess the path ahead and the final outcome of these changes, however, which will likely lead to some near-term uncertainty being priced into asset prices. During the coming months, we will need to contend with the risk of a government shutdown, labor strikes within the automotive sector, perhaps some additional stress within the regional banking sector, as well as the impact of student loan repayment on retail sales and consumption.


The housing market is reflecting the impact of higher mortgage rates and declining affordability, and the commercial property sector (especially the office market) continues to adjust to the post-pandemic environment. International markets also have some uncertainty. While Germany is close to a recession, we may see potential improvement in near term Chinese economic conditions following a sluggish period of slow growth. Regardless, leadership in these markets remains mixed for the time being, despite attractive valuations, and the strong US dollar strength is putting some stress on foreign central banks.


Overall, we still believe the economy will slow in the coming months, but we also believe the US economy can avoid a recession, barring a policy mistake (i.e. raising rates too much or too quickly). It is a delicate balance, however. Reasons for optimism include positive economic growth during the third quarter, prospects for lower inflation over the next year, a potential peak in interest rates, and relatively strong consumer and strong corporate balance sheets.


Consumer spending, which has been the primary surprise of 2023, remains reasonably supportive, although we have noted a rise in credit balances and a decline in excess savings. The health of the consumer is vital to the near-term story, and the good news here is that not only have real wages improved, but labor markets, while slowing a bit, remain favorable relative to prior economic cycle downturns. The so-called goldilocks scenario would entail both a decline in labor markets just enough to satisfy the Fed as well as a drop in inflation back to its 2% target without sending the economy into recession. On this point, we will have to wait and see…


Corporate earnings are expected to increase heading into 2024, and stock valuations are not too stretched unless these estimates prove to be off the mark. Technology stocks – especially those labeled as benefiting from the growth in artificial intelligence (the “magnificent seven”), have greatly outperformed the rest of the market since March, but the rest of the market is beginning to catch up as speculation over near term economic prospects increases.


Looking at fixed income, 2-year treasury yields are back above 5%, and it appears we are in for higher rates for longer. This is certainly a new paradigm that we will gradually adjust to, but it is good news for savers. Borrowers are indeed paying more for leverage, but higher rates also increase the scrutiny and discretion applied to projects that used to be much easier to fund with cheap money over the past decade. This will likely reduce loan growth, which will help to support slower overall economic growth. Homebuyers are indeed feeling the pinch, and it will likely result in a challenging residential market for the foreseeable future. Credit quality remains acceptable at this point; however, we will need to monitor trends which may indicate change is on the horizon. Interest rates next year may come down, but given the pace of things right now (a potential “soft landing” with stubborn inflation), they may not come down nearly as fast or as much as the consensus is expecting today.


In sum, the surprising strength of the consumer has pushed our economic downtown out a bit, but rising interest rates are helping the Fed do its job. Acknowledging that we may have some near-term speed bumps ahead of us, the medium and longer-term outlooks are favorable. Investment markets tend to anticipate the end of rate tightening and new economic cycles before we see it in the data, so we believe that prudent investment policy diversification, diligence and having the right time horizon always makes good sense.

As always, we appreciate you and your continued support. We are optimistic and constantly looking for investment opportunities which take advantage of current circumstances. We welcome your thoughts and feedback, and we look forward to navigating the next few months alongside you.


My best,

Eric C. BOYCE, CFA

President & CEO


By Eric Boyce November 3, 2025
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. the K-shaped sentiment indicator represents the difference between how the higher income populations view the economy versus the lower income levels. 2. inflation sticky, compounding Fed decisions. Future inflation expectations elevated 3. tariff rate ~15%, some increase in small business price increase expectations 4. profit margins expanding for Mag 7; flat to contracting for everyone else in S&P 500 5. increased breadth of market performance relative to 2023/24, but lower versus historical averages 6. delinquencies and defaults are higher, but may have peaked...(?) 7. banking system in good shape from a capital and loss coverage ratio perspective 8. perspectives on the use of alternative investments in a portfolio depending on age and net worth 9. GDP relative to stock prices going back to 1800; 10.gold as a hedge against uncertainty, increased central bank (and China) purchases of gold versus US treasuries
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Dear Clients and Friends,
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By Eric Boyce October 1, 2025
Dear Clients and Friends,
By Eric Boyce September 29, 2025
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Pre-Retirement : Reducing investment risk, increasing cash flow, and preparing for healthcare costs. Retirement : Generating reliable income, minimizing taxes, and preserving against outliving savings. Legacy Planning : Preserving wealth for future generations, supporting charitable giving, and managing estate transfer. Each of these goals requires a tailored investment approach that aligns with the client’s stage of life, priorities, and risk tolerance. Why Do People Go Into Investment Management Many people turn to investment managers when their financial situation becomes more complex or when they want help making informed, long-term decisions. Common reasons include: Lack of time or expertise Most individuals lack the time to research markets or manage risk independently. They want a professional to handle the details so they can focus on work, family, or personal priorities. Need for tax-efficient strategies As income and investments grow, so does the need to manage taxes. A thoughtful investment plan can help reduce tax impact and improve after-tax returns over time. Increased financial complexity Life events, such as retirement, divorce, inheritance, or selling a business, bring new financial challenges. Investment management provides structure and support during these transitions. Outgrowing DIY investing Many start by managing their own investments, but eventually seek expert guidance to preserve what they’ve built and ensure their portfolio aligns with long-term goals. Professional investment management brings clarity and coordination, especially when wealth, responsibilities, or financial risks increase. 4 Principles That Guide Successful Investment Management A successful investment management strategy is built on four core principles: Philosophy, Process, People, and Performance . These elements provide structure and consistency in managing wealth over time. 1. Philosophy Investment philosophy is the guiding belief behind how money is managed. It reflects the approach taken toward risk, returns, market behavior, and decision-making. A well-defined philosophy helps ensure that investment choices are made consistently, even during periods of market uncertainty. 2. Process Process refers to the step-by-step method used to design, implement, and monitor an investment strategy. This includes the selection of investments, the adjustment of portfolios over time, and the management of risks. A clear process supports disciplined decision-making and reduces the influence of emotion or short-term market noise. 3. People Investment management involves human judgment and relationships. The “people” principle highlights the importance of experienced professionals who understand the financial landscape and the client’s personal goals. Trust and effective communication are essential to building a long-term, effective advisory relationship. 4. Performance Performance measures how well an investment strategy meets its intended goals. It’s not just about returns, but about achieving outcomes in line with the client’s timeline, risk tolerance, and objectives. Long-term, goal-based performance is more meaningful than short-term market results. What Makes a Strategy Effective? Investment Goals and Examples An effective investment strategy should consider not only potential returns but also stability, flexibility, and alignment with personal objectives. Investment goals often vary based on life stage and responsibilities. Below are examples of common goals and the types of strategies that can help support them: Funding retirement by a certain age A long-term, diversified portfolio focused on stable growth and income can help ensure that assets are available to support lifestyle needs in retirement. Preserving wealth across generations A strategy that includes tax planning, risk management , and estate coordination can help ensure assets are transferred efficiently and remain preserved. Creating passive income streams Investments such as dividend-paying stocks, bonds, or real estate can be used to generate regular income without depleting the principal. Each of these goals requires a customized investment plan . There is no one-size-fits-all solution. A strategy is effective when it is realistic, carefully managed, and flexible enough to adjust to changing life circumstances. Investment Strategies for Wealth Management Below are four core strategies commonly employed in well-structured portfolios. Each strategy plays a distinct role in managing risk, enhancing returns, and keeping investments aligned with personal objectives. Asset allocation Asset allocation is the process of dividing investments among various asset categories, including stocks, bonds, and cash. The goal is to balance risk and return based on the investor’s timeline, financial goals, and level of risk tolerance. For example, a younger investor might hold more stocks for growth, while someone near retirement might shift toward bonds for stability and income. Diversification Diversification refers to spreading investments across a range of assets, industries, and regions. A stock that is spread out is better prepared to handle market fluctuations while still pursuing long-term growth. AA/Diversification Disclosure Neither Asset Allocation nor Diversification guarantees a profit or protects against a loss in a declining market. They are methods used to help manage investment risk. Tax-loss harvesting Tax-loss harvesting involves selling stocks to offset tax liabilities resulting from gains from other investments, thereby balancing out the value of these gains. This strategy helps reduce capital gains taxes and can improve after-tax returns. The proceeds from the sale are often reinvested, making similar, but not identical, purchases to keep the portfolio’s overall strategy. Rebalancing Rebalancing means adjusting the portfolio to bring it back in line with the original investment plan. Over time, some investments may grow faster than others, shifting the balance of the portfolio. Rebalancing Disclosure Rebalancing/Reallocating can entail transaction costs and tax consequences that should be considered when determining a rebalancing/reallocation strategy. Frequently Asked Questions About Investment Management What is the 10 5 3 rule of investment? The 10-5-3 rule is a basic guideline that reflects average long-term returns for different types of investments: 10% return from stocks 5% return from bonds 3% return from cash or savings These are not guarantees but estimates based on historical performance. The rule helps set realistic expectations and shows how different investment types carry different levels of risk and reward. It's especially useful when planning long-term goals, such as retirement. What type of investment is best for beginners? For most beginners, the best investments are those that are easy to understand, low-cost, and widely diversified. Common starting points include: Index funds: These track the overall market and are simple, low-cost options. Target-date funds: These automatically adjust the investment mix based on your expected retirement year. Robo-advisors: These offer automated portfolio management with little setup. MF/ETF Disclosure: Mutual Funds and Exchange Traded Funds (ETF’s) are sold by prospectus. Please consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing. The prospectus, which contains this and other information about the investment company, can be obtained from the Fund Company or your financial professional. Be sure to read the prospectus carefully before deciding whether to invest. An investment in the Fund involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Your goals, risk, and other factors will help you make the best decision on how involved you want to be. Starting with a simple, balanced approach is often the most effective way to proceed. What is the safest investment with the highest returns? No investment is completely risk-free, but some are considered safer than others. Typically, U.S. Treasury bonds, high-yield savings accounts, and certificates of deposit (CDs) are among the safest options. However, safety often comes at the expense of lower returns. If you're seeking higher returns with limited risk, a diversified portfolio that combines stocks and bonds may offer a balanced solution. It’s essential to find the right balance based on your timeline and comfort level with risk, rather than prioritizing the highest return alone. Tax/Legal Disclosure Boyce & Associates Wealth Consulting does not offer legal or tax advice. Please consult a professional regarding your individual circumstances. Blog Disclosure This blog contains general information that may not be suitable for everyone. The information contained herein should not be construed as personalized investment advice. There is no guarantee that the views and opinions expressed in this blog will come to pass. Investing in the stock market involves gains and losses and may not be suitable for all investors. Information presented herein is subject to change without notice and should not be considered as a solicitation to buy or sell any security. (FirmName) does not offer legal or tax advice. Please consult the appropriate professional regarding your individual circumstance. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
By Eric Boyce September 22, 2025
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. Discussion of Leading economic indicators - negative trends last few years, but coincident indicators continue to move higher 2. Strong relative performance from gold - still viable as a diversification tool 3. money market balances still rising ($7.7 trillion) - lots of market liquidity available 4. infrastructure spending driven by AI, especially in the US - spending likely to continue for several years 5. tariff revenue now 18% of household income tax receipts 6. consumer spending trending down, earnings estimate growth largely driven by Mag 7, tech stocks
By Eric Boyce September 9, 2025
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