Charts & Chat - September 25, 2023
Eric Boyce • September 25, 2023
This week, Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. the timing of the lagged effect of monetary tightening 2. Interest rates are rising again, but the yield curve is steepening 3. Lots of compelling reasons to expect an economic soft landing; however, risks remain and some data like the Leading Economic Indicators still would support recession 4. Trend data and correlations do forecast economic slowdown 5. earnings and economic forecasts can be volatile, but recent trends have been positive

By Eric Boyce
•
August 3, 2026
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. Fed leaves rates unchanged, but bias is up based on sticky inflation data. Bond market providing its own assessment of risk as Fed chair Warsh pulls back and long term rates move higher 2. Earnings estimates accelerating, creating higher valuations and risk if results fall short of expectations. Question of whether free cash flow growth and returns on investment can be achieved by AI firms. 3. inflation volatility adding risk to S&P 500 earnings; increasing divergence between sectors 4. 2nd quarter GDP shy of expectations, as inventory drawdown and weak government spending was offset by positive consumer spending.




