Charts & Chat - September 25, 2023
Eric Boyce • September 25, 2023
This week, Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. the timing of the lagged effect of monetary tightening 2. Interest rates are rising again, but the yield curve is steepening 3. Lots of compelling reasons to expect an economic soft landing; however, risks remain and some data like the Leading Economic Indicators still would support recession 4. Trend data and correlations do forecast economic slowdown 5. earnings and economic forecasts can be volatile, but recent trends have been positive

By Eric Boyce
•
September 21, 2026
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. global oil inventories are falling, creating additional risk within the energy markets 2. Fed rate increase this past week following inflation data, more hikes expected. Dollar strong as a result 3. interest rates and yields rising, impacting cost of capital and risk repricing. Corporate balance sheets remain strong, though 4. Philly Fed data positive; housing starts and sentiment remain weak; retail sales ahead of expectations 5. Import and export prices above expectations, more energy related price impacts likely. Tech import prices accelerating 6. gold ETF inflows strong, more central bank gold investment and US Treasury disinvestment; foreign investment remains strong, however 7. earnings growth expectations remain very strong, anchored by tech AND energy; industrial valuations now ahead of tech





