Charts & Chat - September 25, 2023
Eric Boyce • September 25, 2023
This week, Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. the timing of the lagged effect of monetary tightening 2. Interest rates are rising again, but the yield curve is steepening 3. Lots of compelling reasons to expect an economic soft landing; however, risks remain and some data like the Leading Economic Indicators still would support recession 4. Trend data and correlations do forecast economic slowdown 5. earnings and economic forecasts can be volatile, but recent trends have been positive

By Eric Boyce
•
October 12, 2026
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. More confirming data points on economic expansion; pricing power 2. stable employment trends, with declining continuing claims and 3. Atlanta Fed GDP Now estimates 3.6% annualized growth in 3rd quarter 4. Long term inflation expectations are anchored; demand driven 5. higher interest rates taking toll on interest rate sensitive sectors (home/auto) 6. Rents trending higher, shift from buyers to renters amidst declining supply and homeowner cost push 7. AI theme intact; potential volatility if expectations falter; rapid rise in semis and tech imports 8. in 4th year of bull market in stocks - 5th year average return 12%; valuations still high yet off peaks; breadth declining; small caps underperforming. 9. bond sell-off may be near conclusion; helping to drive dollar higher; yield change reflects increase in real yields, partially driven by demand for credit






