Charts & Chat - September 8, 2024
Eric Boyce • September 8, 2024
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses:
1. Third quarter GDP growth looking like 2% annualized
2. Leading indicators have troughed; however, beige book and other indicators suggest slowing economy
3. Labor market continues to slow, as desired by the Fed; inflation and labor trends provide vast cover for interest rate declines this month
4. Service PMI still positive; manufacturing/construction back in decline
5. Yield curve un-inverted this week for the first time in 783 days
6. Stocks typically are weaker in September; also weaker in two months heading into Presidential election (usually get post election bounce tho)
7. increased volatility overall as of late - should create opportunity for small caps and equal weight S&P over time

By Eric Boyce
•
March 16, 2026
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. Potential near and longer term impacts of the energy shock, understanding that sentiment tends to overstate the eventual impact and that most energy shocks are transitory 2. headline and core inflation in line, driven by continued decline in core services and rents 3. consumer spending remains resilient, but 4. tariff-impacted goods and price increases risk inflation - estimates moving higher as we watch costs in the food chain in apparel increase 5. probability of recession moved up a little in the prediction markets and the likelihood of interest rate cuts in 2026 are largely off the table for the time being. 6. equity markets are in sell off mode, especially in consumer discretionary; S&P 500 index not nearly as useful as a diversification vehicle as it used to be due to increasing concentrations 7. interest rates continue to tweak higher, increasing mortgage rates at a time when affordability is tempered. Bond market volatility picking up a little 8. Deep dive into the topic of Retirement Savings - aging populations, use of social security versus pensions; growth of 401k's, yet meaningful percent of workers do not have retirement accounts




