This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. What to expect in the GDP numbers this week, and the notable rise in mentions of "uncertainty" and "tariffs" in the new Fed composite survey 2. Hard data still holding up amidst the decline in soft data 3. Outlook for orders, capital spending declining; meanwhile prices paid rising in anticipation of tariffs 4. Inventories rising in advance of tariffs - likely a tailwind for the second quarter, but a headwind for the second half of the year, given the current rhetoric 5. Regional Fed service sector data also showing some weakness... 6. Dollar weakness (off trough, though) - what are the implications 7. Gold strength likely to persist 8. S&P 500 earnings estimates coming down ~15% - an analysis of the current adjustments 9. Evidence that markets have reasonable upside following episodes where the market is down 5% over two days (recent occurrence)
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. Issues on trade related to China and the length of negotiation for deals 2. the potential impact on small business & on capital spending 3. Soft data is certainly soft at this point due to global uncertainty...among consumers, business owners and investors 4. Some hard data - retail sales, regional Fed surveys - do not yet reflect the increasing impact of tariffs 5. US dollar weaker - implications for trade, bond yields 6. negative wealth impact of stock declines, where is valuation, earnings estimates falling as expected
CEO Eric Boyce, CFA provides a historic perspective on volatility, in light of recent market developments. The discussion includes: 1. Historical major one-day declines and longer-term drawdowns give way to resounding positive future market performance over time. 2. The relative frequency of drawdowns over time might surprise you. 3. Intra-year downturns are common in years where the market is up for the year. 4. Time greatly dampens the near term impact of volatility. 5. The probability of positive performance really goes up the longer you remain invested. 6. Chart showing how the market goes up +70% of the time, and that bull markets are MUCH more prevalent than bear markets. 7. The value of staying invested according to your investment policy throughout your investment horizon and NOT trying to time the market.
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. earnings estimates have come down, but are still growing for the S&P 500, but not for the Russell 2000 2. valuations have come down appreciably for the S&P 500, and the good news is that it's coming from price/earnigns multipl contraxtion and not earnings 3. gold catches a bid, and there's a strong bet that interest rates will come down based on interest in 3-month SOFR futures 4. both individual and institutional investors more cautious amidst the change in leadership within the market (Mag 7 goes on sale) 5. foreign ownership of US investments has picked up, providing both a benefit and potential risk 6. FOMC more concerned with unemployment and inflation, but do not expect recession despite some estimates for negative growth during 1Q 2025 7. Regional Fed surveys highlight caution; trade figures highlight front running of imports ahead of tariffs 8. corporate profits remain high; pending home sales plunge
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. volatility increases within the market, market sector shifts, market concentration dynamics 2. with higher volatility from trade, etc. policy, markets can actually exhibit better risk-adjusted returns; consumer inflation from tariffs may promote higher profit margins 3. power of long term compounding - EVEN IF price/earnings multiples contract from here 4. international valuations improving relative to S&P500 5. stabilization perhaps in office RE market 6. individual investors very apprehensive about market, think business conditions, employment & income trends worsening. 7. small business outlooks more guarded, higher prices paid showing up in the data 8. housing supply improving, but prices are rising faster than inflation
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. data has been mixed as of late, reflecting some anxiety, uncertainty and conservatism on the part of both business and consumers 2. economic growth softening, although recession calls remain mild. Eyes wide open, however... 3. other data, including the ISM Services PMI, remain solidly in expansion territory 4. Fed may bein a tough spot on near term rate cuts, given the sustainability of announced tariffs. Desire to cut in anticipation of slower growth may be pre-empted by near term effect of tariffs, to the extent they are sustained... 5. generational look at income, economic power, retirement assets 6. equity market trends, including recent test of 200 day moving average and moderation in earnings estimates 7. volatility up, international return expectations higher than US large growth
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. expectations for growth and inflation both increasing for 2025 2. earnings transcripts show increase mention of inflation, tariffs - but also productivity gains from AI 3. labor market really appears stable at this point - firms are downplaying both hiring and layoffs (except in DC) 4. consumer sentiment remains ok, but may change. 50% of consumer spending comes from top 10% earners who have $1.3T in excess savings 5. peak impact of tariffs and DOGE likely 4Q - -0.5% to growth and +0.2% to inflation 6. regional Fed surveys reflect somewhat muted conditions with new exports expected to decline and uncertainty on the rise 7. S&P 500 and 10 year treasury yield positively correlated for the first time in a few months; 3m-10y yield curve back to inverted 8. growth v. value; international equity has weaker growth vs US, but much better valuations 9. bearish sentiment spikes at the individual investor level 10. graph on expected military spending by Europe next few years in the wake of the failed Trump/Zelenskyy meeting this past week
February 23 2025 Charts & Chats with CEO Eric Boyce, CFA. Trade-war risks, inflation concerns, strong retail sales, and shifting capital spending—plus insights on tariffs, government shutdown predictions, and private equity trends. Stay informed!
Tariffs, trade policy, and market trends—what’s ahead? CEO Eric Boyce breaks down economic uncertainty, manufacturing strength, corporate confidence, earnings updates, and consumer stability in this week’s insights.
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. What to expect in the GDP numbers this week, and the notable rise in mentions of "uncertainty" and "tariffs" in the new Fed composite survey 2. Hard data still holding up amidst the decline in soft data 3. Outlook for orders, capital spending declining; meanwhile prices paid rising in anticipation of tariffs 4. Inventories rising in advance of tariffs - likely a tailwind for the second quarter, but a headwind for the second half of the year, given the current rhetoric 5. Regional Fed service sector data also showing some weakness... 6. Dollar weakness (off trough, though) - what are the implications 7. Gold strength likely to persist 8. S&P 500 earnings estimates coming down ~15% - an analysis of the current adjustments 9. Evidence that markets have reasonable upside following episodes where the market is down 5% over two days (recent occurrence)
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. Issues on trade related to China and the length of negotiation for deals 2. the potential impact on small business & on capital spending 3. Soft data is certainly soft at this point due to global uncertainty...among consumers, business owners and investors 4. Some hard data - retail sales, regional Fed surveys - do not yet reflect the increasing impact of tariffs 5. US dollar weaker - implications for trade, bond yields 6. negative wealth impact of stock declines, where is valuation, earnings estimates falling as expected
CEO Eric Boyce, CFA provides a historic perspective on volatility, in light of recent market developments. The discussion includes: 1. Historical major one-day declines and longer-term drawdowns give way to resounding positive future market performance over time. 2. The relative frequency of drawdowns over time might surprise you. 3. Intra-year downturns are common in years where the market is up for the year. 4. Time greatly dampens the near term impact of volatility. 5. The probability of positive performance really goes up the longer you remain invested. 6. Chart showing how the market goes up +70% of the time, and that bull markets are MUCH more prevalent than bear markets. 7. The value of staying invested according to your investment policy throughout your investment horizon and NOT trying to time the market.
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. earnings estimates have come down, but are still growing for the S&P 500, but not for the Russell 2000 2. valuations have come down appreciably for the S&P 500, and the good news is that it's coming from price/earnigns multipl contraxtion and not earnings 3. gold catches a bid, and there's a strong bet that interest rates will come down based on interest in 3-month SOFR futures 4. both individual and institutional investors more cautious amidst the change in leadership within the market (Mag 7 goes on sale) 5. foreign ownership of US investments has picked up, providing both a benefit and potential risk 6. FOMC more concerned with unemployment and inflation, but do not expect recession despite some estimates for negative growth during 1Q 2025 7. Regional Fed surveys highlight caution; trade figures highlight front running of imports ahead of tariffs 8. corporate profits remain high; pending home sales plunge
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. volatility increases within the market, market sector shifts, market concentration dynamics 2. with higher volatility from trade, etc. policy, markets can actually exhibit better risk-adjusted returns; consumer inflation from tariffs may promote higher profit margins 3. power of long term compounding - EVEN IF price/earnings multiples contract from here 4. international valuations improving relative to S&P500 5. stabilization perhaps in office RE market 6. individual investors very apprehensive about market, think business conditions, employment & income trends worsening. 7. small business outlooks more guarded, higher prices paid showing up in the data 8. housing supply improving, but prices are rising faster than inflation
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. data has been mixed as of late, reflecting some anxiety, uncertainty and conservatism on the part of both business and consumers 2. economic growth softening, although recession calls remain mild. Eyes wide open, however... 3. other data, including the ISM Services PMI, remain solidly in expansion territory 4. Fed may bein a tough spot on near term rate cuts, given the sustainability of announced tariffs. Desire to cut in anticipation of slower growth may be pre-empted by near term effect of tariffs, to the extent they are sustained... 5. generational look at income, economic power, retirement assets 6. equity market trends, including recent test of 200 day moving average and moderation in earnings estimates 7. volatility up, international return expectations higher than US large growth
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. expectations for growth and inflation both increasing for 2025 2. earnings transcripts show increase mention of inflation, tariffs - but also productivity gains from AI 3. labor market really appears stable at this point - firms are downplaying both hiring and layoffs (except in DC) 4. consumer sentiment remains ok, but may change. 50% of consumer spending comes from top 10% earners who have $1.3T in excess savings 5. peak impact of tariffs and DOGE likely 4Q - -0.5% to growth and +0.2% to inflation 6. regional Fed surveys reflect somewhat muted conditions with new exports expected to decline and uncertainty on the rise 7. S&P 500 and 10 year treasury yield positively correlated for the first time in a few months; 3m-10y yield curve back to inverted 8. growth v. value; international equity has weaker growth vs US, but much better valuations 9. bearish sentiment spikes at the individual investor level 10. graph on expected military spending by Europe next few years in the wake of the failed Trump/Zelenskyy meeting this past week
February 23 2025 Charts & Chats with CEO Eric Boyce, CFA. Trade-war risks, inflation concerns, strong retail sales, and shifting capital spending—plus insights on tariffs, government shutdown predictions, and private equity trends. Stay informed!
Tariffs, trade policy, and market trends—what’s ahead? CEO Eric Boyce breaks down economic uncertainty, manufacturing strength, corporate confidence, earnings updates, and consumer stability in this week’s insights.
Markets, tariffs, and rate cuts—what’s next? CEO Eric Boyce, CFA, breaks down the biggest economic shifts, from policy uncertainty and trade impacts to consumer optimism, GDP trends, and investment flows. Catch this week’s key insights in the latest Charts & Chat.