This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. changes in the first quarter economic growth report 2. trade and dollar comments following the trade court decision 3. Fed in tough spot; inflation v. growth worry - impact on recession probability 4. Earnings and profits expectations - likely some slowing second half of 2025 but not catastrophic 5. Richmond Fed - slight improvement in expectations, although uncertainty remains a driver 6. housing clearly still stuck in low gear due to affordability 7. analysis of hard data - order, bankruptcies, etc does not reflect crisis situation 8. discussion of strong correlation between gold and dollar 9. energy stocks imply strong pricing heading into summer driving season 10. discussion of dynamic shifts within the S&P 500 index 11. private markets slow getting out of 2025 gate; institutional investments expected to increase, but new activity appears slow
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. changing estimates of the hard versus soft landing for the economy & status of leading economic indicators 2. elevated inflation expectations and declining consumer sentiment 3. the impending impact of higher tariffs on goods vs services spending and economic growth 4. most recent 20-year treasury auction resulted in higher yields due to lower international demand 5. retail stock investors more optimistic amidst decelerating corporate earnings and cash flow 6. valuation and growth compelling in the private sector, as deal flow slowly improves 7. continued discussion on national debt and unsustainable deficits 8. Detail on housing market trends - starts are down, supply is up, prices at six month low 9. Home builder sentiment remains weak, with affordability issues persistent 10. Tremendous equity ($34T) tied up in Real Estate
In the latest Charts of the Week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. tariffs are higher overall despite the noise about levels about "deals" - watch the hard economic data in the coming months 2. producer prices witniessing margin compression 3. retail sales mixed 4. 2nd quarter GDP looking like 2.5% according to Atlanta Fed GDPNow - could be the best quarter of year, but lots of data due to be released next six weeks... 5. some credit indicators weakening; consumer is reasonably good shape. 6. tourism at 10% of GDP - is important 7. debt levels are unsustainable and will need to be address in congress/fiscal policy at some point 8. equities strong, but P/E multiples moving back higher as well - increases risk if economic data/estimates drop considerably due to economic slowdown
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. expected slowdown in economic growth, earnings 2. drop in container shipments from china; impact on tariffs on S&P 500, small business 3. country impact from tariffs; how china is pivoting 4. impact by sector; expectations and response from US companies 5. observations on credit, productivity, activity ahead of the tariffs 6. several data points on how consumers are planning for the next 6-9 months
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. What to expect in the GDP numbers this week, and the notable rise in mentions of "uncertainty" and "tariffs" in the new Fed composite survey 2. Hard data still holding up amidst the decline in soft data 3. Outlook for orders, capital spending declining; meanwhile prices paid rising in anticipation of tariffs 4. Inventories rising in advance of tariffs - likely a tailwind for the second quarter, but a headwind for the second half of the year, given the current rhetoric 5. Regional Fed service sector data also showing some weakness... 6. Dollar weakness (off trough, though) - what are the implications 7. Gold strength likely to persist 8. S&P 500 earnings estimates coming down ~15% - an analysis of the current adjustments 9. Evidence that markets have reasonable upside following episodes where the market is down 5% over two days (recent occurrence)
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. Issues on trade related to China and the length of negotiation for deals 2. the potential impact on small business & on capital spending 3. Soft data is certainly soft at this point due to global uncertainty...among consumers, business owners and investors 4. Some hard data - retail sales, regional Fed surveys - do not yet reflect the increasing impact of tariffs 5. US dollar weaker - implications for trade, bond yields 6. negative wealth impact of stock declines, where is valuation, earnings estimates falling as expected
CEO Eric Boyce, CFA provides a historic perspective on volatility, in light of recent market developments. The discussion includes: 1. Historical major one-day declines and longer-term drawdowns give way to resounding positive future market performance over time. 2. The relative frequency of drawdowns over time might surprise you. 3. Intra-year downturns are common in years where the market is up for the year. 4. Time greatly dampens the near term impact of volatility. 5. The probability of positive performance really goes up the longer you remain invested. 6. Chart showing how the market goes up +70% of the time, and that bull markets are MUCH more prevalent than bear markets. 7. The value of staying invested according to your investment policy throughout your investment horizon and NOT trying to time the market.
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. earnings estimates have come down, but are still growing for the S&P 500, but not for the Russell 2000 2. valuations have come down appreciably for the S&P 500, and the good news is that it's coming from price/earnigns multipl contraxtion and not earnings 3. gold catches a bid, and there's a strong bet that interest rates will come down based on interest in 3-month SOFR futures 4. both individual and institutional investors more cautious amidst the change in leadership within the market (Mag 7 goes on sale) 5. foreign ownership of US investments has picked up, providing both a benefit and potential risk 6. FOMC more concerned with unemployment and inflation, but do not expect recession despite some estimates for negative growth during 1Q 2025 7. Regional Fed surveys highlight caution; trade figures highlight front running of imports ahead of tariffs 8. corporate profits remain high; pending home sales plunge
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. volatility increases within the market, market sector shifts, market concentration dynamics 2. with higher volatility from trade, etc. policy, markets can actually exhibit better risk-adjusted returns; consumer inflation from tariffs may promote higher profit margins 3. power of long term compounding - EVEN IF price/earnings multiples contract from here 4. international valuations improving relative to S&P500 5. stabilization perhaps in office RE market 6. individual investors very apprehensive about market, think business conditions, employment & income trends worsening. 7. small business outlooks more guarded, higher prices paid showing up in the data 8. housing supply improving, but prices are rising faster than inflation
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. changes in the first quarter economic growth report 2. trade and dollar comments following the trade court decision 3. Fed in tough spot; inflation v. growth worry - impact on recession probability 4. Earnings and profits expectations - likely some slowing second half of 2025 but not catastrophic 5. Richmond Fed - slight improvement in expectations, although uncertainty remains a driver 6. housing clearly still stuck in low gear due to affordability 7. analysis of hard data - order, bankruptcies, etc does not reflect crisis situation 8. discussion of strong correlation between gold and dollar 9. energy stocks imply strong pricing heading into summer driving season 10. discussion of dynamic shifts within the S&P 500 index 11. private markets slow getting out of 2025 gate; institutional investments expected to increase, but new activity appears slow
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. changing estimates of the hard versus soft landing for the economy & status of leading economic indicators 2. elevated inflation expectations and declining consumer sentiment 3. the impending impact of higher tariffs on goods vs services spending and economic growth 4. most recent 20-year treasury auction resulted in higher yields due to lower international demand 5. retail stock investors more optimistic amidst decelerating corporate earnings and cash flow 6. valuation and growth compelling in the private sector, as deal flow slowly improves 7. continued discussion on national debt and unsustainable deficits 8. Detail on housing market trends - starts are down, supply is up, prices at six month low 9. Home builder sentiment remains weak, with affordability issues persistent 10. Tremendous equity ($34T) tied up in Real Estate
In the latest Charts of the Week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. tariffs are higher overall despite the noise about levels about "deals" - watch the hard economic data in the coming months 2. producer prices witniessing margin compression 3. retail sales mixed 4. 2nd quarter GDP looking like 2.5% according to Atlanta Fed GDPNow - could be the best quarter of year, but lots of data due to be released next six weeks... 5. some credit indicators weakening; consumer is reasonably good shape. 6. tourism at 10% of GDP - is important 7. debt levels are unsustainable and will need to be address in congress/fiscal policy at some point 8. equities strong, but P/E multiples moving back higher as well - increases risk if economic data/estimates drop considerably due to economic slowdown
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. expected slowdown in economic growth, earnings 2. drop in container shipments from china; impact on tariffs on S&P 500, small business 3. country impact from tariffs; how china is pivoting 4. impact by sector; expectations and response from US companies 5. observations on credit, productivity, activity ahead of the tariffs 6. several data points on how consumers are planning for the next 6-9 months
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. What to expect in the GDP numbers this week, and the notable rise in mentions of "uncertainty" and "tariffs" in the new Fed composite survey 2. Hard data still holding up amidst the decline in soft data 3. Outlook for orders, capital spending declining; meanwhile prices paid rising in anticipation of tariffs 4. Inventories rising in advance of tariffs - likely a tailwind for the second quarter, but a headwind for the second half of the year, given the current rhetoric 5. Regional Fed service sector data also showing some weakness... 6. Dollar weakness (off trough, though) - what are the implications 7. Gold strength likely to persist 8. S&P 500 earnings estimates coming down ~15% - an analysis of the current adjustments 9. Evidence that markets have reasonable upside following episodes where the market is down 5% over two days (recent occurrence)
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. Issues on trade related to China and the length of negotiation for deals 2. the potential impact on small business & on capital spending 3. Soft data is certainly soft at this point due to global uncertainty...among consumers, business owners and investors 4. Some hard data - retail sales, regional Fed surveys - do not yet reflect the increasing impact of tariffs 5. US dollar weaker - implications for trade, bond yields 6. negative wealth impact of stock declines, where is valuation, earnings estimates falling as expected
CEO Eric Boyce, CFA provides a historic perspective on volatility, in light of recent market developments. The discussion includes: 1. Historical major one-day declines and longer-term drawdowns give way to resounding positive future market performance over time. 2. The relative frequency of drawdowns over time might surprise you. 3. Intra-year downturns are common in years where the market is up for the year. 4. Time greatly dampens the near term impact of volatility. 5. The probability of positive performance really goes up the longer you remain invested. 6. Chart showing how the market goes up +70% of the time, and that bull markets are MUCH more prevalent than bear markets. 7. The value of staying invested according to your investment policy throughout your investment horizon and NOT trying to time the market.
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. earnings estimates have come down, but are still growing for the S&P 500, but not for the Russell 2000 2. valuations have come down appreciably for the S&P 500, and the good news is that it's coming from price/earnigns multipl contraxtion and not earnings 3. gold catches a bid, and there's a strong bet that interest rates will come down based on interest in 3-month SOFR futures 4. both individual and institutional investors more cautious amidst the change in leadership within the market (Mag 7 goes on sale) 5. foreign ownership of US investments has picked up, providing both a benefit and potential risk 6. FOMC more concerned with unemployment and inflation, but do not expect recession despite some estimates for negative growth during 1Q 2025 7. Regional Fed surveys highlight caution; trade figures highlight front running of imports ahead of tariffs 8. corporate profits remain high; pending home sales plunge
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. volatility increases within the market, market sector shifts, market concentration dynamics 2. with higher volatility from trade, etc. policy, markets can actually exhibit better risk-adjusted returns; consumer inflation from tariffs may promote higher profit margins 3. power of long term compounding - EVEN IF price/earnings multiples contract from here 4. international valuations improving relative to S&P500 5. stabilization perhaps in office RE market 6. individual investors very apprehensive about market, think business conditions, employment & income trends worsening. 7. small business outlooks more guarded, higher prices paid showing up in the data 8. housing supply improving, but prices are rising faster than inflation
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. data has been mixed as of late, reflecting some anxiety, uncertainty and conservatism on the part of both business and consumers 2. economic growth softening, although recession calls remain mild. Eyes wide open, however... 3. other data, including the ISM Services PMI, remain solidly in expansion territory 4. Fed may bein a tough spot on near term rate cuts, given the sustainability of announced tariffs. Desire to cut in anticipation of slower growth may be pre-empted by near term effect of tariffs, to the extent they are sustained... 5. generational look at income, economic power, retirement assets 6. equity market trends, including recent test of 200 day moving average and moderation in earnings estimates 7. volatility up, international return expectations higher than US large growth