Charts & Chat - July 23, 2023
Eric Boyce • July 23, 2023
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses:
1. inflation deceleration and implications
2. present consumer expectations remain strong, future expectations dropping
3. Philly Fed current manufacturing conditions weak, expectations look better 6 months out
4. Leading indicators suggest slowing, as does bankruptcy filings, credit tightening by banks
5. Housing appears headed to a stall, but not a crash
6. stock inflows remain strong, bond outflows from high credit to more speculative credit - consistent with increased complacency

By Eric Boyce
•
April 6, 2026
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. economic forecasts coming down for the first quarter of 2026, yet probability of recession remains around 30% 2. inflation perking up; manufacturing looking stable; retail sales remain strong 3. sentiment eroding for all income groups, as well as expectations 4. labor market is weak and tight at the same time; trend remains mixed and unidentifiable; software industry job losses pale in comparison to broader economy 5. brent crude prices spike; off circumstance where oil is in backwardation and natural gas is in contango; expect airfare inflation due to higher jet fuel costs 6. housing - affordability concerns persist, credit availability an issue; weak market for builders and existing home sales 7. overall credit metrics are improving, except for subprime borrowers; yields on software firms blowing out because of AI displacement fears. this is causing a major disconnect on prices for private credit and direct lending relative to their net asset values 8. equity earnings and margins continue to expand; however, tech P/E multiples coming in line with broader index 9. discussion of the things which make the S&P 500 a tough index from a benchmarking and diversification standpoint 10. There are 25% more exchange traded funds (ETFs) than listed equities on the US exchanges - implications for future markets




