Charts & Chat - July 23, 2023
Eric Boyce • July 23, 2023
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses:
1. inflation deceleration and implications
2. present consumer expectations remain strong, future expectations dropping
3. Philly Fed current manufacturing conditions weak, expectations look better 6 months out
4. Leading indicators suggest slowing, as does bankruptcy filings, credit tightening by banks
5. Housing appears headed to a stall, but not a crash
6. stock inflows remain strong, bond outflows from high credit to more speculative credit - consistent with increased complacency

By Eric Boyce
•
March 16, 2026
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. Potential near and longer term impacts of the energy shock, understanding that sentiment tends to overstate the eventual impact and that most energy shocks are transitory 2. headline and core inflation in line, driven by continued decline in core services and rents 3. consumer spending remains resilient, but 4. tariff-impacted goods and price increases risk inflation - estimates moving higher as we watch costs in the food chain in apparel increase 5. probability of recession moved up a little in the prediction markets and the likelihood of interest rate cuts in 2026 are largely off the table for the time being. 6. equity markets are in sell off mode, especially in consumer discretionary; S&P 500 index not nearly as useful as a diversification vehicle as it used to be due to increasing concentrations 7. interest rates continue to tweak higher, increasing mortgage rates at a time when affordability is tempered. Bond market volatility picking up a little 8. Deep dive into the topic of Retirement Savings - aging populations, use of social security versus pensions; growth of 401k's, yet meaningful percent of workers do not have retirement accounts




