Charts & Chat - March 17, 2024
Eric Boyce • March 17, 2024
This week, CEO Eric Boyce discusses: 1. inflation remains sticky, especially rents and services, but there is expectations for further reduction 2. analysis of recent trends in CPI, PCE and PPI - patience required in getting to the 2% Fed target 3. retail sales below expectations, implications for a tight labor market 4. small business earnings, hiring intentions remain suppressed 5. household financial strength anchored by housing, equities 6. private debt markets set to explode 7. equity fund flows, buyback increases, higher liquidity, and high valuations set the stage for continued growth but a potential pullback near term

By Eric Boyce
•
April 6, 2026
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. economic forecasts coming down for the first quarter of 2026, yet probability of recession remains around 30% 2. inflation perking up; manufacturing looking stable; retail sales remain strong 3. sentiment eroding for all income groups, as well as expectations 4. labor market is weak and tight at the same time; trend remains mixed and unidentifiable; software industry job losses pale in comparison to broader economy 5. brent crude prices spike; off circumstance where oil is in backwardation and natural gas is in contango; expect airfare inflation due to higher jet fuel costs 6. housing - affordability concerns persist, credit availability an issue; weak market for builders and existing home sales 7. overall credit metrics are improving, except for subprime borrowers; yields on software firms blowing out because of AI displacement fears. this is causing a major disconnect on prices for private credit and direct lending relative to their net asset values 8. equity earnings and margins continue to expand; however, tech P/E multiples coming in line with broader index 9. discussion of the things which make the S&P 500 a tough index from a benchmarking and diversification standpoint 10. There are 25% more exchange traded funds (ETFs) than listed equities on the US exchanges - implications for future markets




