Charts & Chat - March 17, 2024
Eric Boyce • March 17, 2024
This week, CEO Eric Boyce discusses: 1. inflation remains sticky, especially rents and services, but there is expectations for further reduction 2. analysis of recent trends in CPI, PCE and PPI - patience required in getting to the 2% Fed target 3. retail sales below expectations, implications for a tight labor market 4. small business earnings, hiring intentions remain suppressed 5. household financial strength anchored by housing, equities 6. private debt markets set to explode 7. equity fund flows, buyback increases, higher liquidity, and high valuations set the stage for continued growth but a potential pullback near term

By Eric Boyce
•
March 30, 2026
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. more data on the impact, duration and persistency of oil price shocks and their impacts on the investment markets and the economy 2. global geopolitical fragmentation increasing, coupled with declining share of fossil fuels as percent of total energy consumption 3. current forecast for first quarter 2026 economic growth is 2.0% 4. 33% of US government will mature this coming year ($10 trillion), which will need to be refinanced at higher rates; 20% of federal tax receipts go to interest on the federal debt 5. trade policy uncertainty declining, while economic policy uncertainty higher 6. seeing some inflationary pressure coming from producer prices in several Fed districts and in import prices 7. more soft sentiment data from consumers; however, retail and consumption data remain favorable amidst favorable financial conditions 8. stock sell off mitigated by strong earnings, increased liquidity 9. since 1949, average bull market lasts 5.3 years and returns 254%; meanwhile, average bear market lasts 1 year and declines 31% 10. private credit sell-off likely overdone, based on actual loss data



