Charts & Chat - May 20, 2024
Eric Boyce • May 19, 2024
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. recent inflation data at the producer and consumer level - analysis and implications 2. money supply growth negative - positive for disinflation over time 3. labor softening, consumers low on excess savings, increased credit card delinquency; yet, real wages remain high, providing continued spending power 4. manufacturing turning a slow corner 5. stocks back to near overbought; bond yields off interim peaks 6. strong foreign interest in US stocks/bonds (except for China)

By Eric Boyce
•
August 17, 2026
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. consumer inflation largely in line, tempering fears (for now) of a near term rate increase. Core goods and services both show deceleration; however, producer prices remain elevated. Overall consumer inflation now 13% above the Fed's 2% trend target, highlighting the difficulty of maintaining policy goals 2. 3Q 2026 economic growth now estimated at ~4.3%, down from +5%. Tariff refunds helping in the near term 3. trade policy uncertainty abating, soft data providing more positive economic surprises. 4. wages remain sticky, savings rates on the decline 5. retail investors more optimistic on market than institutional investors at the moment, but overall optimism remains high. Earnings estimates are accelerating, drawing price/earnings multiples down. Tech and industrial firms leading the way on sectors raising guidance 6. seasonal patterns suggest volatility may pick up next few months before calming toward year end. 7. energy supplies remain constrained, leaving room for potential price spike in the coming months. 8. Treasury bond issuance increasingly anchored in short term, exposing to increasing borrowing costs should rates rise. New long term issuance now above 5% for the 1st time since 2001, reflecting fiscal issues and higher potential inflation




