Charts & Chat - May 20, 2024

Eric Boyce • May 19, 2024

This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. recent inflation data at the producer and consumer level - analysis and implications 2. money supply growth negative - positive for disinflation over time 3. labor softening, consumers low on excess savings, increased credit card delinquency; yet, real wages remain high, providing continued spending power 4. manufacturing turning a slow corner 5. stocks back to near overbought; bond yields off interim peaks 6. strong foreign interest in US stocks/bonds (except for China)



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This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. believe it or note, we are now in the 6th longest business cycle expansion in US history 2. AI spending should be a continued economic driver on several fronts 3. economic growth stemming from high income households, increased consumption and declining savings rates; deep dive into the wealth effect and notable drivers 4. Three engines of 2026 growth: AI spending, Infrastructure & Manufacturing Capacity Spending, and OBBBA (offset by higher energy costs) 5. generational transfer of "wealth" (i.e. free cash flow) from Hyperscalers to semiconductor companies 6. equity valuations remain high - tremendous surge in earnings expectations driving optimism and valuation gap versus international stocks
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