This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. 1st quarter GDP revised down to 1.6%, driven by weak residential investment and lower personal consumption. Multi-year growth slowing through the first quarter, but recession indicators are not flashing 2. sentiment remains weak, especially indicators more heavily influenced by inflation expectations 3. PCE inflation moving higher - remains consistently above the Fed's target and calls into question the credibility of the fed to corral inflation to its 2% target 4. Saving rates moving lower, and top 10% of income earners supporting personal spending amidst declines in overall real disposable income 5. money supply likely to help keep inflation higher for longer; meanwhile, interest on federal debt is now 3X just 5 years ago and represents 4.5-5% of GDP 6. Technology spending, especially in AI related areas, is greatly fueling the economy, earnings for the S&P 500 and stock prices. Semiconductor stocks have carried the market higher based on strong earnings, although high capex is coming at a time of declines in free cash flow for the index. 7. valuations remain high for equities, but prices could be supported by high short interest, which could cause a squeeze if the market keeps moving higher 8. interest rates have moved higher all along the yield curve, driven by different things. higher inflation pressuring the short end, while fiscal deficits and spending furling higher long yields
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