Charts & Chat - March 26, 2023

This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. no significant predictive investment trends from geopolitical events, especially over the medium to long erm. 2. bank lending recovering, defaults higher but not yet a problem; new business applications on the rise 3. Housing - confidence and affordability still main drivers; average monthly payments and mortgage interest rates remain sticky 4. Job market remains sluggish; job sentiment weak 5. manufacturing remains weak; service economy remains in expansion 6. Big divergence still exists for hard versus soft data; soft data is weak, while much of the observable data is more positive. 7. Atlanta Fed predicting 5% annualized GDP growth for the 4th quarter of 2025 8. Equity market concentrations and valuation bear watching; fixed income poised for better performance

This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. breakdown of drivers behind the 3rd quarter economic growth data and what to possibly expect in 2026, including possible impact from lingering tariffs and the OBBBA 2. inflation and wage trends heading into the new year. 3. the impact of income levels on spending, consumer confidence and expectations, as well as impact of tariffs and OBBBA on consumers by income level. 4. home prices up, but rate of growth decelerating; median home price to income ratios increasing. 5. Manufacturing activity remains sluggish in the Dallas and Richmond Fed districts, but future order growth looks promising. 6. Net federal interest rate expense will become a significant conversation during the 2030's. 7. breakdown of 2025 equity market drivers, including by sector and by factor. What to expect at least for the first part of 2026. 8. discussion of concentration risk, valuation and volatility heading into the new year. 9. more normal treasury yield curve at beginning of year; discussion of potential for rate cuts. 10.breakdown of commodity performance in 2025 and implications for potential commodity supercycle based on potential weaker dollar expectations 11.state of alternative assets in portfolios, weak crypto markets at end of year, implications of declining Chinese fertility.

Consensus sees 14–15% S&P 500 EPS growth, AI capex and broader leadership, ~2% GDP, limited Fed cuts, and 10-yr 3.75–4.5%. Stay diversified with quality bonds and select alternatives amid tech and inflation risks.

The start of a new year is the perfect time to take control of your finances and set yourself up for success in 2026. Small, proactive steps now can make a big difference over the year.

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This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. inflation lower than expected as government data releases get back to normal following shutdown 2. regional Fed districts report mixed manufacturing activity and new orders heading into the new year 3. demographic data and its impact on future economic trends, declining number of families with children under 18 and net immigration 4. data on the housing market, affordability etc. 5. power generation demand will drive investment in the next 5-10 years 6. commodity update - oil market soft, but potential upside; copper, food basket increases 7. investor sentiment remains high, cash balances low, risk appetite is "on". 8. important role and historical impact of dividends and dividend paying stocks on overall performance and risk 9. international investments outperforming domestic; gold prices correlated with increased uncertainty and high yield correlated to crypto

This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. estimates heading into 2026 call for 8.7% stock growth off 12-14% earnings growth - estimates are a guide but a by no means an absolute 2. Fed cuts rates for the last time in 2025, what are the implications 3. the nuts and bolts behind the K-shaped economy for consumers, investors, businesses etc. 4. reasons behind recent improvement in trade; downtrend in employment costs 5. international equity outlook positive for 2026, risk appetite higher in all global markets 6. Mag 7 not uniformly beating the broader index; some improvements in breadth 7. yield curve positive, but longer term rates are higher than when the Fed began cutting short term rates. May see more volatility in bonds in 2026 8. commodity trends mixed; crude/distillate stocks lower, implying higher prices ahead

This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. So-called "hard" economic data looking much better than "soft" data, fueling increased confidence, optimism, earnings estimate increases and market outlook for 2026 2. earnings and economic growth expected across global markets, as output remains mostly steady and public market valuations not too far from historical averages 3. US service sector remains in growth territory; production slightly positive, although capacity utilization remains depressed 4. apartment rents down, helping to hold inflation lower; multi-family vacancies rising. Single family transaction cancellations are on the rise. 5. labor market softness illustrated, highlighted by small business contraction 6. investor sentiment higher, leading to more of a "risk-on" environment 7. credit defaults looking better, leading to recompression of credit spreads in the market 8. treasury issuance spiking, which is helping to hold interest rates higher then they would otherwise likely be

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