This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. Look back at lack of manufacturing growth following 2018 tariffs 2. Tariff revenue high; potential upside in capital spending in advanced manufacturing, sources of power for data centers, and other infrastructure spending 3. Misery index not foreshadowing recession; small business credit conditions remain tight 4. freight volumes, pricing subdued - may portend slowdown in consumer spending 5. consumer delinquencies picking up in some areas; paying close attention to trends 6. market breadth thin - not your father's S&P 500 anymore 7. drawdowns lead to opportunity; bond volatility higher than equity volatility & may be more seasonal than we think
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. Stocks have moved higher over the long term despite variations in price/earnings multiples 2. S&P 500 index is inherently different from even 10 years ago; volatility and intra-year drawdowns are absolutely normal and can lead to generous long term returns if one is patient and diligent 3. the power of long term compounded return and diversification - stocks versus bonds and cash; stocks have considerably more volatility than bonds 4. The importance of being diligent on monitoring inflation - trends in service inflation, wages provide dilemma for Fed on interest rates 5. Boom in infrastructure spending, notably data centers 6. Surge in new business applications bodes well for entrepreneurship 7. Big opportunity in offshore Asia private credit and private equity
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. The slowing in the labor economy due to tariffs, etc. 2. 2nd quarter GDP reflected reversal from 1Q - real read through is slowdown in final sales to private domestic purchasers 3. In 25 years, persons over 55 yrs of age own 20% more of the total household assets...implications for wealth planning and transfer 4. Potential implication on long-term interest rates from increased deficits from OBBBA 5. Second quarter earnings stronger than expected; profit margins holding steady amidst increased tariffs 6. Updates on housing starts/sentiment, consumer financial health, PMI data, consumer sentiment
On July 4th Donald Trump signed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBA), a law which extended many of the tax code changes made in the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) and added new provisions that will impact many of our clients. The bill totals a whopping 870+ pages so I’ll try to be as concise as possible.  Lets begin with the extension of tax breaks. The TCJA reduced federal tax bracket rates in 2017 and those lower rates were set to expire at the end of 2025. The OBBA made permanent the reduction in federal tax brackets. Below is a comparison of what rates would have been post TCJA without this permanent extension.
Dear Clients and Friends,
Retiring with $2 million is a milestone many Americans dream of reaching, but what that money actually provides depends heavily on where you live and the lifestyle you envision. In Texas, where the cost of living can vary significantly by region, $2 million can open up a range of retirement possibilities, from modest and stress-free to comfortably upscale. The cost of housing alone can make a significant difference in how far your nest egg stretches, whether you're pursuing upscale city living in Austin or a more relaxed, budget-friendly lifestyle in places like Amarillo. To illustrate this variation, here’s how median home prices and lifestyle considerations differ across several Texas cities:
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. small business remain high due to trade policy 2. GDP likely to rebound - I discuss the drivers of the near term reversal and what to expect 3. US dollar weakness - what are the implications, and what is the relationship between inflation and interest rates 4. Recession probability remains low; long term inflation remains anchored 5. analysis of how many businesses are planning to pass through tariffs to customers 6. Trade war likely to take ~0.9% off GDP (per Apollo) - bigger than any most countries. 7. Analyzing debt, consumer credit and spending trends 8. Trends in earnings estimates, investor sentiment 9. college education costs expected to be up +9% year-over-year
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. Analysis of recent and upcoming economic growth and consumer spending data 2. Capital spending, housing slowing, money supply now increasing again 3. Deficit/Debt expectations 4. Updated tariff expectations on inflation, growth, etc. 5. Latest expectations for the social security trust fund 6. Trends in stock valuations, earnings and operating profit margins
Dear Clients and Friends,
Estate planning is one of the most foundational steps you can take to protect your legacy and loved ones. Unfortunately, many people make costly errors that create confusion, delay, and unintended consequences. Here are the ten most common estate planning mistakes to avoid: 1. Not Having a Plan Dying without a will or trust means state laws dictate who inherits your assets, often leading to outcomes you never intended. Do not let the courts decide. 2. Failing to Update Documents Life changes — like marriage, divorce, or the birth of a child — require updates. Outdated plans can send assets to the wrong people. You should update every 5 years at the minimum. 3. Not Planning for Incapacity Without a durable power of attorney or healthcare directive, your family may need court intervention to manage your affairs if you're incapacitated. This makes sure someone can pay your bills while you are not able to. 4. Choosing the Wrong People or too many people Naming an untrustworthy or incompetent executor, trustee, or agent can lead to mismanagement, delays, and legal disputes. Having multiple trustees or executors makes decision making difficult. 5. Ignoring Beneficiary Designations Retirement accounts and insurance policies bypass your will. If designations are outdated, assets may go to unintended recipients. I have heard of ex-spouses receiving tax-free insurance payout and not the current spouse. Check the beneficiaries every year. 6. Overlooking Tax Implications Failing to consider estate or gift taxes can shrink your legacy. Strategic gifting and trusts can minimize tax burdens. In 2025 the lifetime estate and gift exemption is $13.99 million per person. However, if Congress does not do anything, the exemption amount goes down $7 million on January 1, 2026. If your estate is more than the exemption it will be taxed at your tax rate. Example: If you pass in 2025 and your estate is $15 million, the taxable amount is $1.01 million. You would owe $404,000. In 2026, if nothing changes, your tax would be on $8 million. You would owe 40% on $8 million, $3.2 million in taxes. 7. Fund your Trust Trusts can avoid probate, ensure privacy, and manage inheritances over time. Without them, assets may be misused or delayed. Make sure you title what you can in your trust or put as beneficiaries if necessary. Consult your lawyer and make sure they walk you through how to retitle property and investments in the Trusts name. 8. Forgetting Digital Assets Without access to online accounts and passwords, heirs may lose valuable financial and sentimental property. Even if you are in the hospital incapacitated, who is going to keep paying the monthly bills. Have a plan! 9. Leaving Assets Directly to Minors Minors can't legally own property. Without trust, courts step in — and full control often transfer at age 18. If you have trust, you will have the trustee manage the assets for the minors. You have more control from the grave with a Trust. Feel free to put in there that they must be debt free other than a mortgage for a year or get an education. They must complete it before a trustee releases the funds. I do not want my 18-year-old getting a lot of money right away! 10. Going DIY Without Legal Help Online forms can’t replace personalized legal guidance. Mistakes here often cost far more than hiring an expert. Here is a real-life example, A man drafted his own will. He was divorced and had 6 kids. In the will he stated that his kids would each get 1/6% of the estate and his ex-wife would have the remainder. The kids collectively only got 1% (1/6*6), the ex-wife got 99%. All because of a percentage symbol. Just be careful. Spending the money now will save you in the long run. Avoiding these mistakes ensures your legacy is secure and your wishes are honored.